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The looming U.S. Supreme Court decision on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) has freight and logistics companies on edge. While importers are focused on potential refunds, experts warn the ruling could immediately impact U.S. trade volumes, especially as companies plan spring and summer shipments around the Lunar New Year.

U.S. freight under pressure

The U.S. transportation sector has struggled through a freight rate recession, largely due to lower container volumes as businesses front-loaded shipments to offset higher tariffs. Project44 reports that imports from China fell 28% year-over-year in 2025, while exports to China dropped 38%, marking one of the sharpest bilateral trade contractions in recent history. Global ocean container volumes into the U.S. tracked by Sonar show a 14% decline. The tariff-induced lean inventories have created uncertainty across supply chains.

Potential surge in imports

Industry executives predict that if the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, companies will increase orders from China and other previously high-tariffed countries. Paul Brashier, VP of global supply chain at ITS Logistics, said, “If the IEEPA tariffs were removed from all imports, there would certainly be a surge in orders, particularly from countries recently facing higher tariffs.”

The Court of International Trade could mandate refunds to importers and maintain jurisdiction over claims for up to two years, potentially freeing cash for companies to restock before the February Lunar New Year. Analysts from Seko Logistics estimate that the optimal window for placing orders is between now and January 20, given production slowdowns in Chinese factories that begin three to four weeks before the holiday.

Smaller businesses on the front line

Small and medium-sized businesses are expected to act first, as they have tighter planning cycles and fewer resources. Eytan Buchman, CMO of Freightos, explained, “The tariffs have sapped their ability to plan reliably. A favorable ruling could lead to a surge in orders as they try to secure shipments before any new trade restrictions are implemented.”

Freightos’ five-year analysis of Lunar New Year ordering patterns shows that smaller companies typically generate a spike in shipments three to four weeks ahead of the holiday, highlighting the critical timing if tariffs are overturned. Many importers may also explore new global sourcing options if tariff uncertainty is removed, while some may return production to China to take advantage of cost efficiencies.

Industry divided on impact

Not all logistics firms expect dramatic shifts. IMC Logistics reports strong ongoing import volumes from Asia to the U.S. West Coast and expects any tariff-related changes to take up to 45 days to materialize due to ocean transit times. Brian Kobza, IMC’s chief commercial officer, noted, “Based on trade patterns from 2025, the ruling may create only a modest increase in volumes, not a massive surge.” Similarly, Alan Baer, CEO of OL USA, said, “Even if the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs, the impact on total imports may be minor.”

Timing is critical

The Supreme Court ruling will arrive as companies make final decisions for spring and summer shipping, coinciding with Chinese factory shutdowns for the Lunar New Year from February 17 to March 3. Logistics managers warn that the combination of tariff relief, restored cash flow, and holiday production cycles could create a short-term spike in orders, particularly among smaller importers trying to “beat the clock.”

Ultimately, the decision will affect not just refunds but the rhythm of U.S.-bound trade, influencing container volumes, warehouse inventories, and the planning strategies of businesses large and small. The industry is bracing for a potential reshaping of freight flows depending on the Court’s interpretation of the Trump-era tariffs.

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