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A Pivotal Moment for Trump’s Tax Agenda

President Donald Trump’s ambitious tax proposal—referred to by the administration as the “One Big Beautiful Bill”—cleared a crucial hurdle late Wednesday night. After an intense 21-hour markup session, the House Rules Committee advanced the legislation to the full House floor for a vote. This move sets the stage for a critical test of GOP unity, as leadership races to meet a self-imposed Memorial Day deadline.

What’s in the Bill? A $5 Trillion Rewrite of the Tax Code

Spanning over 1,000 pages, the bill seeks to:

• Make permanent the 2017 Trump-era tax cuts.
• Completely eliminate federal income taxes on tipped wages.
• Drastically expand deductions for state and local taxes (SALT) from $10,000 to $40,000 for filers earning under $500,000.
• Advance the timeline for Medicaid work requirements from 2028 to 2026, appeasing conservative fiscal hawks.

The final draft also includes 42 pages of amendments, reflecting frantic negotiations between GOP moderates and hardliners.

The Political Drama Behind the Vote

The legislation passed the House Rules Committee in an 8-4 vote, despite one key conservative—Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX)—abstaining. Roy, along with House Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-MD), met with Trump at the White House earlier in the day in an effort to iron out disagreements over the bill’s impact on the deficit.

With the GOP’s razor-thin majority, House Speaker Mike Johnson can afford to lose only a few votes from within his own party. No Democratic support is expected.

According to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, the Trump meeting with House conservatives was “productive” and helped “move the ball in the right direction.”

Market Reactions: Wall Street Shows Signs of Anxiety

Financial markets responded with immediate concern. On Wednesday, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond surged to 5.09%, its highest in months, as investors priced in the risk of ballooning federal deficits.

Economists and budget watchdogs have flagged the bill as fiscally risky, projecting a multi-trillion-dollar increase in the national deficit over the next decade.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released an analysis suggesting the bill would:

• Reduce overall resources for the bottom 10% of income earners.
• Increase wealth for the top 10%.

Senate Outlook: A Tougher Climb Ahead

If passed in the House, the bill faces a more complicated journey through the Senate, where it will be considered under budget reconciliation rules—allowing passage with a simple majority rather than the usual 60 votes.

However, several Senate Republicans have already signaled they will demand significant revisions before lending their support.

Summary: High Stakes and a Tight Timeline

With Speaker Johnson’s Memorial Day deadline approaching, and deep divisions still lingering within the GOP, the fate of this historic tax overhaul remains uncertain.

Whether this legislation becomes a cornerstone of Trump’s economic legacy—or a cautionary tale of political overreach—will likely be determined in the next 48 hours.