^{Photo: Malay Mail}

What was expected to be a triumphant and forward-looking Paris Air Show has taken a somber turn following two significant events: the first fatal crash of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner and the dramatic escalation of military tensions between Israel and Iran. These developments are weighing heavily on an industry already grappling with post-pandemic disruptions, supply chain issues, and labor shortages.

Air India Flight 171: A Historic Tragedy

On Thursday, Air India Flight 171 crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, India, en route to London. The aircraft, an 11-year-old Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, went down in a devastating fireball after gliding into a medical school dining hall. Out of 242 passengers and crew, 241 perished. The sole survivor was a British national seated in 11A, who is currently receiving medical care.

This incident marks the first-ever deadly crash involving a Boeing Dreamliner, a milestone that deeply unsettles an industry long reliant on the aircraft’s reputation for safety and fuel efficiency.

While the cause of the crash remains under investigation, preliminary focus is on the sudden, sustained loss of altitude, which occurred without apparent warning. The aircraft’s cockpit voice recorder (CVR) and flight data recorder (FDR) have been recovered and are being analyzed by investigators in both India and the United States.

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg, who took the helm in August, canceled what would have been his first Paris Air Show appearance, as did Stephanie Pope, head of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Ortberg addressed the company in a letter:

“Stephanie and I will remain with our team and our customer during this difficult time. We owe them our complete focus and support.”

GE Aerospace, which manufactures the Dreamliner’s engines, also postponed its investor day scheduled for the following week.

Military Escalation Alters the Air Show Agenda

In a separate but equally disruptive development, overnight missile strikes by Israel on Iran, followed by retaliatory drone attacks by Iran, have thrown global aviation into disarray. Dozens of international flights were canceled or rerouted to avoid the volatile airspace, underscoring the industry’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks.

Analysts expect this conflict to push defense and military aviation further into the spotlight at the Paris Air Show. While military budgets were already growing, especially in Europe and Asia, the latest flare-up is likely to accelerate defense procurement — both for deterrence and readiness.

However, these same tensions are also raising concerns about demand stability for commercial aviation, particularly in long-haul international markets.

Commercial Demand Holds Firm Amid Turbulence

Despite the tragic events, Boeing, Airbus, and Embraer are expected to secure a substantial volume of aircraft orders during the air show. According to IBA, a U.K.-based aviation consultancy, manufacturers could tally between 700 and 800 commercial aircraft orders, including firm deals, purchase options, and letters of intent.

Expected buyers include:

• Ethiopian Airlines
• LOT Polish Airlines
• Vietnam Airlines
• AirAsia
• Royal Air Maroc
• Etihad Airways
• Riyadh Air (Saudi Arabia)

Air India, which had been considered a potential customer, is now unlikely to announce new orders in light of the crash.

A large deal from China is also anticipated, either for fleet renewal or capacity expansion, according to advisory firm Ishka.

Supply Shortages, Pricing Pressures, and Leasing Costs

With global demand for newer, fuel-efficient aircraft running hot, waitlists stretch into the 2030s. Meanwhile, the industry continues to suffer from bottlenecks in parts, labor shortages, and the lingering effects of on-again, off-again trade tariffs between global suppliers.

Prices have surged in recent months. As of April:

• A new Airbus A321neo costs about $65 million, up from $58 million in early 2023.
• A Boeing 737 Max 8 now lists for $55.5 million, up from $50.25 million.
• A 12-year-old Boeing 737 now rents for $241,000/month, a 42% increase in just two years.
• An Airbus A320 of the same age leases for $239,000/month, up 50% in that same time frame (source: IBA Insight).

This pressure is pushing many airlines — especially in emerging markets — to lease older aircraft instead of committing to full-scale purchases.

The Rise of the Wide-Body Comeback

While narrow-body jets have dominated order books for years, the return of international travel is reviving demand for twin-aisle aircraft.

“Everyone is now booking these monster wide-body orders,” said Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory. “International traffic is back — and airlines want to compete for that long-haul pie.”

He pointed to the Gulf carriers, Turkish Airlines, and several Southeast Asian airlines as leading examples of this trend, all placing large twin-aisle orders to serve expanding global networks.

Outlook: A Resilient but Cautious Industry

Boeing projects that the global aviation market will need 43,600 new commercial aircraft over the next 20 years, with emerging markets set to make up over 50% of the world’s fleet by 2044, up from 40% last year.

The short-term mood, however, is less optimistic.

The combination of tragic loss, uncertainty, and political instability has muted what was meant to be a celebratory moment for the industry. Executives and analysts alike are treading carefully — continuing to push forward on deals while acknowledging the very human cost behind the headlines.

“It’s a terrible tragedy,” Aboulafia said of the Air India crash. “But based on what we know so far, this doesn’t appear to be a fundamental failure in the aircraft’s design or build. The show will go on — but with heavier hearts.”