^{Photo: Bloomberg}

Iran Maintains Oil Exports Through a War-Torn Waterway

Despite rising tensions and military threats in one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors, Iran has continued exporting significant volumes of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, with China remaining the primary buyer.

Energy tracking firm TankerTrackers estimates that Iran has shipped at least 11.7 million barrels of crude oil through the strait since the current conflict began on February 28. Nearly all of those shipments appear to be destined for Chinese buyers, highlighting Beijing’s continued reliance on Iranian crude even as regional instability grows.

Shipping analytics company Kpler places the figure slightly higher, estimating that around 12 million barrels of Iranian oil have crossed the strait during the same period. Analysts note that confirming final destinations has become increasingly difficult because many vessels are now switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) trackers, a tactic commonly referred to as “going dark.”

Satellite imagery has become a crucial tool for tracking these shipments. Firms monitoring maritime traffic have been able to identify tankers leaving Iranian ports even when their electronic tracking systems are disabled.

Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically important oil transit routes in the world. The narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman carries roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, making it a vital artery for international energy trade.

Since the outbreak of hostilities between Iran and the U.S.-Israel alliance, shipping traffic through the strait has slowed dramatically. Many tanker operators have avoided the route due to the heightened risk of attacks.

Within the first two weeks of the conflict alone, ten vessels operating in or near the strait reportedly came under attack, resulting in the deaths of at least seven crew members, according to maritime authorities.

Iran has warned that ships passing through the waterway should exercise extreme caution, adding to concerns among global shipping companies and insurers. War risk insurance premiums for tankers entering the region have also surged in recent weeks, further discouraging traffic.

Despite the risks, several tankers have continued to leave Iranian ports. Satellite monitoring has confirmed that six oil tankers departed Iran after the conflict began, with at least three sailing under the Iranian flag.

Kharg Island Still Dominates Iranian Oil Exports

Historically, Iran’s main oil export hub has been Kharg Island, located roughly 25 kilometers (15 miles) off the country’s southern coast in the Persian Gulf. The terminal has long handled about 90% of Iran’s crude exports, making it the backbone of the country’s oil logistics network.

Tankers typically load crude at Kharg Island before navigating through the Strait of Hormuz and heading toward Asian markets, especially China.

However, the ongoing war has raised serious concerns about whether this route can remain reliable if military tensions escalate further.

Iran Revives Jask Terminal as an Alternative Route

In response to the heightened risk around the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has also begun utilizing the Jask oil terminal, located along the Gulf of Oman, south of the strait.

This facility is strategically important because it allows Iranian crude shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, offering an alternative export pathway if the chokepoint becomes inaccessible.

Recent satellite imagery confirmed that an Iranian tanker was loading approximately 2 million barrels of crude at the Jask terminal. According to maritime monitoring data, this marks only the fifth tanker loading at the site in the past five years, indicating that the facility has rarely been used at scale.

While the terminal represents a potential backup option, experts say it currently lacks the operational efficiency of Iran’s primary export hubs.

Loading a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) at Jask can take up to 10 days, compared with one to two days at Kharg Island. This slower process significantly limits the terminal’s ability to handle large export volumes.

Energy analysts say that while the Jask terminal offers strategic value as a contingency route, it is unlikely to replace the Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s primary export channel in the near future.

China Remains the Key Buyer of Iranian Crude

China continues to be the dominant buyer of Iranian oil, often purchasing discounted barrels despite international sanctions.

Current estimates suggest that Iranian shipments to China have averaged around 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) since the war began. While still substantial, this figure represents a decline from earlier levels.

In February, before the conflict intensified, Iran exported approximately 2.16 million barrels per day, marking its highest export level since July 2018.

Much of that crude was directed toward Chinese refineries, particularly independent “teapot” refiners that frequently process discounted or sanctioned crude supplies.

China has also been aggressively expanding its strategic petroleum reserves.

Official customs data shows that the country’s crude oil imports increased 15.8% year-over-year during the first two months of the year. Analysts say the increase reflects Beijing’s effort to build a buffer against potential disruptions in global energy supplies.

According to energy research estimates, China has accumulated about 1.2 billion barrels of crude oil in storage, enough to cover roughly three to four months of domestic demand.

Stockpiling efforts accelerated further after geopolitical developments disrupted two major suppliers. Venezuela and Iran, both critical sources of discounted crude for China, have faced major political and military upheavals this year.

Global Oil Markets React to Supply Risks

The conflict has triggered intense volatility in global oil markets.

At the height of supply fears earlier this week, Brent crude prices surged close to $120 per barrel, the highest level seen in roughly four years. The spike was driven by fears that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could remove millions of barrels of daily supply from the global market.

Several Gulf producers have already scaled back production due to security concerns, while shipping companies have diverted tankers away from the region.

The potential for a major supply shock has prompted discussions among global policymakers about emergency measures.

Leaders from the Group of Seven (G7) economies are reportedly considering a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves, which could become the largest emergency oil release in history if implemented.

Oil Prices Begin to Stabilize

Following the initial surge, oil prices have since moderated as markets reassessed the likelihood of a prolonged supply disruption.

As of late Tuesday trading, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April delivery was trading near $84.90 per barrel, while the global benchmark Brent crude for May delivery hovered around $88.90 per barrel.

Even with the recent pullback, analysts warn that markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the region. Any escalation involving the Strait of Hormuz could send prices sharply higher again.

A Fragile Energy Situation

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to cast a long shadow over global energy markets.

With the Strait of Hormuz responsible for transporting nearly a fifth of the world’s oil, even small disruptions can ripple through international supply chains and push prices upward.

For now, Iran appears determined to keep crude flowing to its most important customer, China, despite military threats and declining tanker traffic. Whether the fragile balance holding the region together can last remains one of the most pressing questions facing the global energy market.