^{Source: Newsx}

A New Challenge for Indian Aviation

In a major blow to Indian aviation, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian airlines on Thursday, forcing major carriers like Air India, IndiGo, Akasa Air, and SpiceJet to reroute dozens of westbound flights.
This move, stemming from renewed tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors, is already impacting travel times, fuel costs, and even the availability of certain international flights.

Longer flight paths, unexpected refueling stops, and suspended routes are just the beginning. However, experts predict that passengers may not see a significant rise in airfare — at least for now.

Why Pakistan Closed Its Airspace

The decision follows a tragic attack in the scenic town of Pahalgam, located in the Jammu and Kashmir region administered by India, where 26 tourists were killed.
India has attributed the massacre to Pakistani-linked militants, a claim Pakistan denies, calling instead for a neutral international investigation.

The incident has rekindled deep-seated tensions over the long-disputed Kashmir territory, resulting in this latest move that is now rippling across international aviation.

The Immediate Impact on Indian Airlines

• Flight Rerouting:
  Major airlines are now flying hundreds of extra miles to avoid Pakistan’s airspace.
  Flights that previously had a direct route over Pakistan must now swing south or north, extending travel times significantly.
• More Expensive Journeys:
  Longer routes mean higher fuel costs, additional crew hours, and increased operational expenses for airlines.
  In certain cases, airlines are being forced to make unscheduled refueling stops, a rare but costly move.

For instance:

• Air India flight A1101 (New Delhi to New York) — typically a non-stop flight — had to refuel in Copenhagen on Saturday, arriving nearly six hours late.
• The same route a day earlier was diverted to Vienna, with a four-hour delay.

According to FlightRadar24 data, these are not isolated cases but part of a growing trend.

Flights and Routes Most Affected

• IndiGo, India's largest airline by market share, indicated that up to 50 international routes may experience disruptions.
• Air India announced that its flights connecting North America, Europe, and the Middle East would take alternative, longer paths.
• Flights to Almaty, Kazakhstan and Tashkent, Uzbekistan have been temporarily suspended.

Meanwhile, airlines that are not subject to Pakistan’s restrictions — such as those based in the Middle East or Europe — can continue using the shorter routes, giving them a competitive advantage over Indian carriers.

Broader Aviation Landscape

Indian carriers dominate international flight departures from India, with more than 9,000 scheduled international departures this month alone, according to Cirium aviation analytics.

Specifically:

• Air India has 519 flights scheduled to Europe and 309 flights to North America in April.
• Fortunately, some Air India flights can still fly over Russia to access North America, minimizing disruption in certain cases.

However, for routes to the Middle East, Pakistan's airspace is critical.
In 2023, 49.3% of outbound Indian travelers headed for the Middle East, with the United Arab Emirates alone welcoming 7.2 million Indian visitors, according to the 2024 India Tourism Data Compendium.

Of these travelers:

• 50% were migrant workers,
• 41% were leisure tourists,
• 9% were business travelers.

This shows just how deeply intertwined Indian aviation is with Middle Eastern destinations.

Will Airfares Increase?

Despite the rising operational costs, aviation experts believe ticket prices won’t spike significantly — at least not immediately.

According to John Grant, chief analyst at OAG,

“It’s more symbolic than a major disruption. These types of regional airspace closures usually don't trigger sharp fare hikes unless they are prolonged.”

However, history tells a different story if closures persist:

• A similar airspace shutdown in 2019 lasted five months, costing Indian airlines approximately 7 billion Indian rupees (about $82 million) in losses.

Interestingly, airfares have already dropped on some domestic routes:

• Flights from New Delhi to Srinagar, normally expensive during April (with average fares between $175 and $255), are now available for as low as $150, according to Google Flights.
• Airlines such as Air India and IndiGo have introduced flexible booking policies, offering full refunds or free rescheduling for affected flights through May 7.

Kashmir Tourism Suffers Amid Crisis

The travel disruptions are also devastating the booming tourism industry in Kashmir.

According to Muheet Ul Islam, a Kashmiri journalist and filmmaker:

“There’s a pin-drop silence in the valley now. Many tourists I spoke to said they wouldn’t return — ever.”

In recent years, Kashmir had seen a tourism renaissance, with people from across India and abroad flocking to the picturesque valleys and snowy mountains.
Many locals had shifted careers to work in hospitality and tourism. But now, the tragedy threatens to undo years of progress.

Final Thoughts

While the closure of Pakistani airspace hasn’t yet caused widespread fare inflation, it presents serious challenges for Indian carriers, increasing operational costs and inconveniencing travelers.

If the political standoff continues, the long-term consequences could be much steeper — both financially for the airlines and emotionally for a region that had only just begun to heal.

Travelers are advised to check with airlines for route changes and flexible options before booking or boarding flights bound for Europe, North America, or the Middle East.

‍