^{Getty Images}

Top Energy CEOs Stay Silent on Oil Price Forecasts as Middle East Tensions Rise

As the conflict between Iran and Israel intensifies, two of the world’s largest energy players—Baker Hughes and Woodside Energy—are treading carefully, refusing to speculate on future oil prices. Their hesitation reflects not only the high-stakes geopolitical uncertainty but also the growing concerns about a potential disruption in global oil supply.

Speaking at the Energy Asia conference in Kuala Lumpur, both companies emphasized the fluid nature of the crisis and the risk of escalation—especially if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for global oil transport.

Escalating Tensions: Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Global Risk

Over the weekend, Israel launched targeted strikes on Iran, reportedly hitting nuclear and military facilities and resulting in the deaths of several top Iranian scientists and military leaders. In retaliation, Iranian officials hinted at the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could severely disrupt 20% of the world’s daily oil flow.

The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) confirmed as of Sunday that the strait remained open, stating, “There remains a media narrative on a potential blockade... JMIC has no confirmed information pointing towards a closure but will monitor the situation closely.”

Industry Leaders: It’s Too Early to Predict

Lorenzo Simonelli, CEO of Baker Hughes, spoke candidly with CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Monday, stating:

“My experience has been, never try and predict what the price of oil is going to be—because there’s one sure thing: you’re going to be wrong.”

Simonelli noted that the last 96 hours have been “very fluid,” urging caution while expressing hope for de-escalation. He added that Baker Hughes would continue to monitor developments closely and adopt a wait-and-see approach on future investments and projects.

Woodside Energy: Global Markets Already Reacting

Meg O’Neill, CEO of Woodside Energy, echoed Simonelli’s stance, acknowledging that global energy markets are already experiencing “very significant” volatility in response to the unfolding crisis.

She warned that any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would escalate prices significantly, as energy-dependent countries scramble for alternative supply routes.

“If the Strait is closed, it would have even more significant effects on prices, as customers around the world would be scrambling to meet their own energy needs,” she said.

O’Neill also stressed the deep ties between geopolitical risk and oil markets, citing past examples from World War II, the 1973 oil crisis, and Gulf War-era price shocks.

Still, she resisted the temptation to make bold predictions, stating:

“There are many things we can forecast. The price of oil in five years is not something I would try to put a bet on.”

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters So Much

The Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide chokepoint between Iran and the United Arab Emirates, is the only sea route from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 21 million barrels of oil—roughly 20% of global consumption—pass through it daily.

Its strategic importance makes it a focal point for global energy security. A blockade would shock international oil markets, potentially driving crude oil prices well above $100 per barrel and causing ripple effects across inflation, energy costs, and supply chains worldwide.

Global Energy Market Already on Edge

Although oil prices have surged amid these tensions, analysts note that prices are only returning to levels seen earlier this year. Still, volatility is expected to rise, especially if geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to worsen.

Both CEOs highlighted the complexity of forecasting in such conditions, urging prudence over speculation.

Industry Caution Reflects Unprecedented Risk

The decision by Baker Hughes and Woodside Energy to avoid oil price projections underscores the unpredictable nature of the current geopolitical climate. With the Strait of Hormuz in the spotlight and tensions showing no sign of easing, energy markets remain on high alert.

As governments and investors brace for possible supply shocks, one thing is clear: the world’s energy landscape is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, and the decisions made in the coming days may shape market dynamics for months to come.