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Domino’s Q1 2025: A Mixed Bag With a Promising Outlook

Domino’s Pizza may have reported a softer-than-expected first quarter, but CEO Russell Weiner remains unfazed — and even bullish — about what lies ahead. In a recent interview on CNBC’s Mad Money with Jim Cramer, Weiner acknowledged the revenue miss and declining same-store sales, yet pointed to growing U.S. market share and major upcoming initiatives as reasons to stay optimistic.

“Sure, we missed slightly on the quarter,” Weiner said, “but we gained market share — and that’s something we’ve consistently done almost every year for the past 16 years.”

Key Q1 Numbers: Revenue Miss and Declining Same-Store Sales

• Revenue: Domino’s generated $1.02 billion in Q1 2025, slightly below analyst expectations of $1.04 billion, according to Refinitiv.
• Same-store sales (U.S.): Down 0.7%, reflecting weaker-than-expected consumer demand during the post-holiday slump.
• Global retail sales (excluding currency impact): Increased 5.3% year-over-year, with international sales up 7.1%, offsetting softness in U.S. markets.

Shares initially dropped during Monday's trading session but bounced back to close up 0.63%, as investors absorbed Domino’s long-term strategic vision.

Market Share Growth: Domino’s Quiet Strength

While top-line numbers didn’t dazzle Wall Street, Weiner emphasized a critical win: market share growth. According to internal data, Domino’s captured nearly 1% more of the U.S. pizza delivery market, a trend the company has repeated nearly every year since Weiner joined the executive team.

Industry analysts note that Domino’s now controls roughly 22% of the U.S. pizza delivery market, outpacing rivals like Pizza Hut and Papa John’s. Weiner credits this to Domino’s scalable operations, customer loyalty, and competitive pricing model.

Big Moves Ahead: DoorDash Partnership and Stuffed Crust Launch

Weiner acknowledged that Q1 had fewer major rollouts, calling it “probably the lightest quarter for initiatives,” but teased several growth levers for the rest of 2025:

• Stuffed Crust Pizza: Domino’s is entering the stuffed crust arena — long dominated by Pizza Hut — to tap into consumer demand for premium comfort food options.
• DoorDash Partnership: In a major pivot, Domino’s will now list on DoorDash, expanding beyond its long-held strategy of owning the end-to-end delivery process.

“The aggregated marketplace is where consumers are,” Weiner explained. “Roughly $5 billion in U.S. pizza sales happen through third-party apps, and we believe at least $1 billion of that can be ours.”

Last year, Domino’s joined Uber Eats, marking its first major aggregator partnership. However, Weiner now says DoorDash alone moves twice the pizza volume of Uber, making it a vital part of Domino’s digital expansion plan.

Why Tariffs and Inflation Aren’t Slowing Domino’s Down

When asked about global tariffs and inflationary headwinds, Weiner was clear: Domino’s supply chain is resilient.

• Ingredient Costs: No significant impact from recent tariffs.
• Consumer Spending: While macro concerns persist, Domino’s value-focused pricing helps retain customers even in tougher economic environments.

“We’re built for moments like this,” Weiner said. “Our size, our supply chain, and our pricing strategy allow us to shield both franchisees and customers from the worst of inflation.”

Analyst and Industry Perspectives: Can Domino’s Deliver?

Several analysts maintain a cautious but positive view on Domino’s long-term outlook:

• Morgan Stanley reiterated its ‘Overweight’ rating, citing growth potential through aggregator expansion.
• BTIG highlighted the “stickiness” of Domino’s customer base, which remains strong in suburban and rural markets.
• Bank of America noted that Domino’s delivery execution and tech infrastructure remain among the best in the industry, even as competition heats up from aggregators and ghost kitchens.

Final Thoughts: Betting on Domino’s Long Game

Despite Q1 2025’s mixed performance, Domino’s isn’t slowing down. With new products, strategic partnerships, and a loyal customer base, the company is adapting to a rapidly changing food delivery landscape.

If the DoorDash partnership and stuffed crust rollout succeed, analysts say Domino’s could capture a significantly larger slice of the aggregator-driven delivery market — potentially adding $500 million to $1 billion in new sales over the next 12–24 months.

For investors, the message is clear: the short-term stumble may be temporary, but Domino’s growth engine is revving up for a strong rebound in the quarters ahead.

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