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China’s young and highly educated are increasingly choosing the perceived safety of government employment, marking a sharp reversal from the private-sector ambitions that defined the country’s workforce for much of the past two decades. As economic momentum slows and hiring confidence weakens, public sector jobs are once again becoming the top destination for graduates seeking stability.

A record 3.7 million candidates sat for China’s national civil service examination this year, according to official data. The number reflects growing anxiety among jobseekers as private-sector opportunities shrink and competition intensifies. Yet the odds of success remain extremely low: only around 38,100 entry-level government positions are available, meaning roughly one in every 100 applicants is expected to secure a role starting next year.

Weak Job Market Drives Shift in Career Choices

The surge in applications comes as China’s youth labor market continues to struggle. Urban unemployment among people aged 16 to 24 has remained above 17% since mid-year, significantly higher than levels seen in most developed economies. Sluggish growth, cautious corporate spending and subdued consumer demand have combined to reduce hiring across multiple industries.

For many graduates, the private sector no longer offers the promise it once did. Large-scale layoffs in technology, real estate and education services have eroded confidence. Data from an industry and commerce association shows that China’s top 500 private companies cut a combined 314,600 jobs last year, underscoring the scale of retrenchment.

As a result, graduates are increasingly lowering salary expectations and prioritizing job security. Government roles, long known as “iron rice bowls” for their predictable hours, benefits and social standing, are regaining appeal after years of being overshadowed by higher-paying corporate careers.

Personal Stories Reflect Broader Anxiety

The shift is visible in individual experiences. Coral Yang, a 22-year-old graduate from a leading Shanghai university with a degree in data analytics, spent months searching for private-sector work before landing a marketing role that was later withdrawn due to cost-cutting.

“There just aren’t many openings, and everything feels unstable,” she said. After the offer was rescinded, Yang decided to begin preparing for next year’s civil service exam, joining millions of others betting on public employment despite daunting odds.

Public Sector Now the Top Career Goal

Survey data reinforces this trend. According to a nationwide study by recruitment platform Zhilian Zhaopin, around 63% of students in 2024 listed public sector roles, including government agencies and state-owned enterprises, as their top career choice. That compares with just 42% in 2020.

Within the public sector, state-owned enterprises are often seen as more attainable than government agencies due to larger headcounts and less competitive exams. Analysts note that while civil service jobs remain highly selective, SOEs provide a compromise between stability and employment probability.

Meanwhile, interest in private enterprises has dropped sharply. Only 12.5% of graduates sought jobs at private firms last year, down from more than 25% four years earlier, highlighting a dramatic shift in sentiment.

Government Hiring Fails to Keep Pace

While demand for public sector jobs has exploded, supply has not. Fiscal pressure linked to the prolonged property downturn has constrained local government budgets, limiting their ability to expand payrolls.

After a pandemic-era hiring surge in 2020, when government headcounts rose 66% to manage lockdowns and public health measures, recruitment has slowed markedly. For 2026, the central government reduced planned civil service openings by about 4% to roughly 38,100 positions.

Competition has intensified accordingly. The average acceptance ratio has worsened from about one successful applicant per 70 candidates in 2023 to roughly one in 100 next year. In some rural and less-developed regions, the ratio has reached extreme levels, with a single role attracting more than 6,000 applicants.

As one academic observer noted, the civil service exam is quietly becoming one of the most competitive contests in the country, rivaling elite university admissions in selectivity.

More Graduates, Tougher Odds

The pressure is set to increase further. An estimated 12.7 million university and vocational school graduates are expected to enter the job market next year, the largest cohort on record.

To widen the candidate pool, authorities have raised age limits for applicants, allowing those with postgraduate degrees to apply until age 38 and PhD holders until 43. While roughly 70% of new government hires are now reserved for fresh graduates, competition remains fierce due to the sheer volume of applicants.

Work-Life Balance and Changing Values

Beyond economics, changing attitudes toward work are also shaping career decisions. Many young people are prioritizing predictable schedules, manageable workloads and personal time over rapid advancement and high pay.

The concept of “lying flat,” a term used to describe opting out of intense workplace competition, has gained traction. For some, government roles symbolize a structured environment where expectations are clearer and burnout is less likely, even if reality does not always match perception.

Experts caution that public sector careers can be rigid, politically complex and slow-moving, particularly at senior levels. Still, for many graduates, these drawbacks appear preferable to the volatility of private firms.

Confidence in Higher Degrees Is Fading

At the same time, enthusiasm for postgraduate education is waning. Applications for China’s national postgraduate entrance exam fell to 3.4 million this year, down sharply from a peak of 4.74 million in 2023.

Graduates increasingly question whether additional years of study translate into better job prospects. Employment outcomes suggest diminishing returns: fewer than 45% of postgraduates secured offers last year, compared with nearly 57% the year before. By contrast, vocational college graduates saw employment rates climb to nearly 57%, benefiting from more practical skill sets.

Long-Term Economic Implications

Economists warn that the growing concentration of top talent in government and state-linked institutions could have long-term consequences. While it strengthens the public sector’s human capital, it may reduce risk-taking, entrepreneurship and innovation in the private economy.

Over time, this reallocation of talent could reshape China’s growth model, reinforcing the role of the state while dampening the dynamism that once fueled rapid expansion. For now, however, millions of young Chinese appear willing to trade ambition for security as uncertainty continues to define the economic landscape.