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A Frozen Frontier Heating Up

Once a frozen afterthought in global affairs, the Arctic is now emerging as a geopolitical and economic battleground. While Russia has long maintained dominance over the region, a surge of Western military activity and resource exploration is challenging that control — and Moscow isn’t staying quiet.

Russia, which possesses the largest share of the Arctic coastline, is increasingly anxious as NATO and U.S. forces pivot northward. With vast reserves of oil, gas, and critical minerals becoming more accessible due to climate change, and a strategic shipping route linking Europe and Asia, the Arctic has become too valuable to ignore — and too contested to take lightly.

Russia’s Arctic Dominance — and Vulnerability

Russia controls 53% of the Arctic Ocean coastline, stretching over 22,990 miles, and has invested heavily in the region since the mid-2000s. According to the Arctic Institute, around 2.5 million Russians live and work in the Arctic zone, contributing to strategic industries including:

• Oil, gas, and mineral extraction
• Fisheries and maritime logistics
• Northern Sea Route (NSR) transport
• Military operations and nuclear deterrence

The NSR alone offers a 40% shorter maritime route between Europe and Asia, making it a potential game-changer for global trade. The Arctic currently accounts for 7.5% of Russia’s GDP and over 11% of its total exports, according to Alexey Chekunkov, Russia’s Minister for the Development of the Far East and Arctic.

Russia has also built a specialized fleet of icebreakers, military bases, and nuclear-capable submarines in the Arctic. It hosts the Northern Fleet, which recently launched drills involving 20 warships and 1,500 personnel shortly after NATO conducted war games in neighboring Norway.

The West Makes a Move

NATO’s March exercises in Norway, involving 10,000 troops from nine nations, were described as preparations for “extreme cold-weather warfare.” But Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized them as signs of Western escalation, stating:

“NATO countries are increasingly designating the Far North as a springboard for possible conflicts.”

These exercises are just the latest chapter in the West’s Arctic reawakening. The tipping point came with Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which redefined NATO’s strategic priorities — especially with Sweden and Finland’s recent membership boosting NATO’s Arctic presence.

Former EU Ambassador to the Arctic Marie-Anne Coninsx explained:

“Before Ukraine, NATO overlooked its northern flank. Now, with geopolitical tension rising and Arctic access improving due to climate change, the region has become critical for both security and geoeconomic reasons.”

Climate Change and Critical Resources

As Arctic ice retreats, the vast reserves beneath it are coming into view — including an estimated 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. This doesn’t even account for lithium, rare earth minerals, and other critical resources required for green energy transitions.

These resources, coupled with growing global demand, are driving increased interest not just from Western nations, but also from non-Arctic states like China, which has labeled itself a "near-Arctic power" and included the Arctic in its Belt and Road Initiative.

Russia’s Sanctioned Economy Still Arctic-Focused

Western sanctions — especially following the Ukraine invasion — have hit Russia’s Arctic investments hard. Projects like Arctic LNG 2 and Vostok Oil have faced delays or funding issues due to sanctions targeting Russia’s energy and logistics sectors.

However, Russia continues to bypass restrictions through a “shadow fleet” of tankers that export oil to non-Western countries. Experts say these operations have helped fund up to one-third of Russia’s war costs in Ukraine, despite sanctions.

“Sanctions are working — but not fast enough,” Coninsx warned. “Russia is still funding its war machine with Arctic resources, and that poses a direct threat to European security.”

A Strategic Tug-of-War

Russia has treated the Arctic as a top strategic priority since 2007, even planting a titanium flag on the seabed beneath the North Pole. It has reinvested billions into Arctic cities, energy infrastructure, and defense. In contrast, Western powers have only recently begun to ramp up their Arctic strategies — often playing catch-up.

A 2024 CEPA report noted:

“The Kremlin remains adamant about asserting complete control over the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. is expanding its Arctic policy. Under the Trump administration, there were even controversial suggestions to “purchase” Greenland, a resource-rich island owned by Denmark. Although widely ridiculed, it underscored Washington’s strategic urgency.

Interestingly, Bloomberg reported that Russia, seeing an opportunity, quietly proposed joint Arctic ventures with the U.S. to extract resources and facilitate transport — though no official agreements have been confirmed.

A New Cold War in the Cold North?

The Arctic is no longer a remote expanse of ice — it’s a geopolitical chessboard. With climate change transforming its accessibility and value, the race for dominance is accelerating. Russia sees the Arctic as both a lifeline and a launchpad for global influence. The West, realizing it can no longer afford to ignore the region, is rushing to catch up.

But as both sides escalate military drills and economic investment, the question remains: Can the Arctic become a model of cooperation, or is it destined to become the next flashpoint in great power rivalry?

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