^{Injection pens of Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drug Wegovy are shown in this photo illustration in Oslo, Norway, Nov. 21, 2023. | Victoria Klesty | Reuters}

Novo Nordisk Scores Win in Obesity Drug Rivalry

Novo Nordisk gained a much-needed boost this week after new trial data suggested its blockbuster weight-loss drug Wegovy (semaglutide) significantly reduces the risk of heart attack, stroke, or death among overweight and obese patients with cardiovascular conditions.

According to the company, patients on Wegovy recorded a 57% greater reduction in these life-threatening events compared to users of tirzepatide, Eli Lilly’s active ingredient behind its fast-growing drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro.

While the results stemmed from a real-world study rather than a randomized controlled trial, the data suggested clear cardiovascular advantages for Novo’s semaglutide-based therapy. The incidence of serious cardiovascular events was 0.1% for Wegovy patients versus 0.4% for tirzepatide users.

Why This Matters for Novo Nordisk

The findings are especially critical as Novo Nordisk fights to hold its ground in the booming GLP-1 drug market, now valued at over $100 billion globally. Both Novo and Eli Lilly dominate the space, but they face mounting competition from generic compounders and intense investor scrutiny over long-term growth potential.

Novo stressed that these results add to a growing body of evidence showing semaglutide’s unique heart-protective benefits — something not seen across the entire class of GLP-1 or GIP/GLP-1 treatments. This distinction could strengthen the company’s promotional strategy in the U.S. market, where Eli Lilly has been gaining ground.

Market Reaction and Investor Takeaways

Shares of Novo Nordisk rose 3% on Monday following the release, offering some relief after a rough stretch. The company’s stock has fallen over 40% in 2025 and 10.6% in 2024, dragging down Denmark’s broader economy given Novo’s outsized role in exports.

Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar, called the cardiovascular results a potential “game changer” but cautioned that competition in the obesity drug market is cyclical. “Rivals overtake each other repeatedly,” he noted, adding that the muted stock reaction reflects cautious optimism rather than investor euphoria.

Other analysts agreed that the trial data could help Novo’s marketing efforts but stopped short of declaring a decisive win over Eli Lilly.

U.S. Market Struggles and Tariff Pressures

Novo’s U.S. business — once the growth engine that propelled it to become Europe’s largest listed company in 2023 — is under strain. President Trump’s tariff push and pressure on drugmakers to lower prices and shift production to U.S. soil have weighed heavily on performance.

Denmark’s government recently cut its annual growth forecast by more than half, explicitly citing Novo’s declining U.S. market share and weaker pharmaceutical export outlook. The European pharmaceutical sector as a whole has also struggled to regain investor confidence amid Washington’s ongoing Section 232 investigation into imports, including medicines.

Adding to the pressure, U.S. drugstore chain CVS expanded access to Wegovy earlier this year, but analysts at UBS noted signs of plateauing demand due to copycat drugs and strong uptake of Lilly’s Zepbound.

The Bigger Picture

Despite challenges, demand for weight-loss treatments continues to surge worldwide. GLP-1s and related drugs are being studied not only for obesity and diabetes but also for conditions like liver disease, Alzheimer’s, sleep apnea, and even alcohol addiction. Each new data point can swing billions in market value for drugmakers.

For Novo Nordisk, the cardiovascular findings offer a powerful marketing narrative as it seeks to fend off Lilly and maintain its leadership in obesity care. Yet, with tariffs, political uncertainty, and fierce competition clouding the outlook, the company’s road to recovery in the U.S. market remains far from smooth.