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Walmart’s Earnings Arrive at a Crucial Time

Walmart will report its fiscal third quarter earnings on Thursday morning, and the results are expected to provide one of the clearest signals yet about the financial health of U.S. consumers. As the nation’s largest retailer by revenue and the biggest grocery seller in America, Walmart’s numbers often serve as a proxy for household behavior across income levels.

This report lands in the middle of a cautious retail earnings season. Major competitors including Target, Lowe’s and Home Depot have all warned this week that shoppers are becoming more hesitant about major purchases, home improvement projects and higher ticket items. With the holiday season now underway, Walmart’s update will carry significant weight.

What Wall Street Expects

Analysts surveyed by LSEG expect Walmart to deliver the following for the fiscal third quarter:

• Earnings per share: 60 cents
• Revenue: $177.43 billion

These estimates reflect expectations of steady demand for essential goods, even as consumers adjust to economic pressures such as elevated prices and the impact of federal assistance changes.

How Walmart’s Customer Base Reflects the Broader Economy

Walmart’s wide customer base across income brackets gives it a unique vantage point. As the largest U.S. grocer, it serves millions of shoppers who rely on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. Government funding interruptions, including those tied to the prolonged federal shutdown, have affected customer purchasing power, and Walmart’s results will show how much that shift impacted shopping trends.

At the same time, Walmart has increasingly attracted higher income households who are trading down from more expensive retailers in search of better value on groceries, household goods and everyday essentials. Store remodels, improved layouts and faster delivery speeds have also strengthened its position with more affluent shoppers.

Because Walmart sells both discretionary products such as apparel and cosmetics, and necessities such as food and toiletries, its performance provides a balanced view of where consumers are cutting back and where they continue to spend.

Updated Forecasts and Consumer Trends

Back in August, Walmart raised its full year outlook, projecting net sales growth between 3.75% and 4.75% for fiscal 2025 and adjusted earnings per share between $2.52 and $2.62. At that time, Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said customers remained resilient, with no major behavioral shifts detected.

Thursday’s update will show whether that resilience held up in the face of new economic pressure points, including reduced federal benefits, persistent inflation in essential categories and growing competition among retailers for holiday shoppers.

The results will also be viewed in contrast with other retailers’ recent revisions. Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s all lowered their full year profit expectations this week, citing a more cautious customer who is delaying discretionary purchases and increasingly hunting for discounts. However, TJX, the parent company of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, raised its full year forecast, pointing to strong momentum among value driven shoppers.

A Leadership Shift Ahead of Holiday Season

Walmart’s report also marks the first quarterly update since announcing a major leadership change. John Furner, currently CEO of Walmart U.S., will take over as global CEO on February 1, succeeding Doug McMillon, who has led the company for more than a decade.

McMillon’s leadership coincided with significant transformations at Walmart, including a major push into e commerce, a revamp of its supply chain and a stock price increase of more than 300% during his tenure. Analysts expect the transition to be smooth, with Furner already playing a pivotal role in guiding U.S. operations.

What to Watch Going Forward

Investors and analysts will closely examine Walmart’s commentary on:

• Shifts in grocery and essential goods demand
• Trends among high-income versus low-income shoppers
• Performance of discretionary categories
• Early holiday season momentum
• The impact of SNAP changes and government funding interruptions
• How the leadership transition may influence strategy

With Walmart’s scale and market influence, Thursday’s results will likely shape expectations for the broader retail sector heading into the biggest shopping period of the year.