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Richard Hughes, the chair of the United Kingdom’s Office for Budget Responsibility, has resigned following a highly disruptive incident in which the OBR published its economic and fiscal outlook nearly forty minutes before the Autumn Budget was formally presented. The premature release created immediate uncertainty across financial markets and raised questions about internal protocol and data security within one of the country’s most influential fiscal institutions.

What Triggered the Resignation

The Autumn Budget is one of the most closely watched fiscal events in the UK, often shaping investor confidence and guiding policy expectations. On 26 November, the OBR accidentally published its full set of projections ahead of schedule, revealing assessments on government borrowing, growth expectations, inflation forecasts, and debt trends before Chancellor Rachel Reeves addressed Parliament.

The leak caused market volatility, with yields on British government bonds fluctuating sharply as traders attempted to price in information that was never meant for early distribution. Analysts noted that similar leaks in the past have moved markets by billions of pounds in minutes, underscoring the severity of even minor procedural errors at fiscal institutions.

Hughes’ Letter and Explanation

Hughes, who has served as chair since October 2020, submitted his resignation shortly after market close on Monday. In a detailed letter to Chancellor Reeves and Treasury Select Committee Chair Dame Meg Hillier, he described the premature publication as a “technical but serious error.” The OBR’s internal report, already submitted to the Treasury and the Select Committee, outlines exactly how the early release occurred, identifies procedural failures, and recommends safeguards to prevent any repetition.

Hughes emphasized that stepping down was necessary to allow the OBR to move forward without prolonged scrutiny. He stated that the organization’s independence and credibility—built over fifteen years of economic forecasting—must remain intact, and that “the best course of action is for new leadership to take responsibility for restoring confidence.”

Response From the Government

Chancellor Rachel Reeves publicly thanked Hughes for his contributions, acknowledging his leadership during a period marked by economic shocks including the pandemic recovery, inflation surges, and shifts in fiscal policy. She reiterated the government’s commitment to protecting both the independence of the OBR and the credibility of the UK’s wider fiscal framework.

Government officials have confirmed that an interim leader will be appointed while the process for selecting a new chair is finalized. The OBR is expected to implement the report’s recommendations immediately, including strengthened internal review procedures, improved publication safeguards, and enhanced technical oversight during Budget periods.

Why This Matters

The OBR plays a central role in ensuring that government spending plans are transparent, credible, and analytically grounded. Any breach—technical or otherwise—can undermine market confidence and cast doubt on the reliability of official forecasts, which influence everything from government borrowing costs to business investment decisions.

This incident highlights how sensitive fiscal information is, how quickly markets can react to early disclosures, and why robust controls are essential within institutions that shape economic expectations. The resignation marks a significant moment for the OBR, setting the stage for reforms that aim to reinforce its role as an independent pillar of the UK’s fiscal architecture.