^{Photo: South China Morning Post}

Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest geopolitical maneuvering reveals a peculiar yet calculated approach—simultaneously penalizing India, sparing China from certain trade pressures, and extending olive branches to Russian President Vladimir Putin. At first glance, this patchwork strategy may appear inconsistent, but experts argue that it reflects Trump’s long-standing habit of using trade as a bargaining chip to gain political leverage.

Pressure on India Through Trade Penalties

India has increasingly found itself in Trump’s crosshairs. Despite being one of Washington’s fastest-growing trading partners, New Delhi has been targeted with tariffs and threats of additional penalties. According to trade data, U.S.-India bilateral trade hit nearly $200 billion in 2023, making India America’s ninth-largest trading partner. Yet Trump has argued that India maintains an unfair trade surplus with the U.S., particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and information technology services.

Geopolitical analysts believe the penalties are not simply about economics. Trump’s goal is to pressure New Delhi into a broader trade deal that would reduce tariffs on American agricultural goods, automobiles, and industrial exports. Moreover, the U.S. sees India as a crucial counterweight to China in Asia, making Trump’s strategy as much about geopolitics as trade. By tightening the screws, he is seeking concessions that could elevate U.S. influence in South Asia.

China’s Surprising Exemption

While Trump has repeatedly clashed with Beijing over tariffs, intellectual property theft, and market access, China has notably avoided new “secondary” tariffs targeting nations that import Russian energy. This is significant because China remains Russia’s largest energy customer, purchasing more than $90 billion worth of oil and gas annually since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Why would Trump spare China in this case? Experts suggest it’s a calculated move to avoid escalating tensions with Beijing at a time when the global economy is still reeling from supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures. By holding back on these particular tariffs, Trump may be signaling to China that he is open to negotiation on certain issues, potentially preserving space for future economic or diplomatic deals.

Putin’s Red Carpet Treatment

Perhaps the most striking element of Trump’s approach is his outreach to Vladimir Putin. Reports indicate that Trump is seeking a ceasefire pact with Moscow, positioning himself as a potential broker of peace in Eastern Europe. This comes amid growing fatigue in the U.S. and Europe over the financial burden of supporting Ukraine.

For Trump, offering Putin a symbolic “red carpet” could serve multiple objectives: presenting himself as a dealmaker capable of ending the war, reducing U.S. commitments abroad, and strengthening his domestic political image ahead of elections. Critics, however, warn that such overtures risk undermining Western unity and emboldening Moscow at a time when sanctions are meant to isolate Russia.

A Strategy of Leverage

At its core, Trump’s foreign and trade policy follows a consistent pattern—apply pressure where it creates maximum leverage, ease restrictions where it opens doors for negotiation, and seek personal credit for breakthrough deals. His critics call it erratic, while his supporters argue it is pragmatic and results-oriented.

Geopolitical experts underline that these moves are not isolated events but part of a broader attempt to reshape global alignments. With the U.S. seeking to maintain its economic dominance amid rising powers, Trump’s strategy suggests that he views every trade relationship as a zero-sum game where American interests must always come out on top.

What Lies Ahead

Whether this unconventional approach pays off remains to be seen. India is unlikely to concede easily on agricultural tariffs, China continues to pursue its own global ambitions, and Russia’s war shows no signs of winding down. Still, Trump’s playbook reflects a willingness to defy traditional diplomacy in pursuit of leverage, headlines, and political advantage.

For now, the world is watching closely as Trump recalibrates America’s stance toward its most critical partners and rivals—balancing penalties, exemptions, and red-carpet gestures in a high-stakes game of global power.

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