^{Photo: Reason Magazine}

The Clean Energy Boom at Risk

America’s transition to renewable energy is under serious threat. A sweeping new tax bill passed by House Republicans—praised by Donald Trump as the “one big, beautiful bill”—could roll back the tax credits that have fueled the U.S. solar industry’s historic growth. If enacted in its current form, the legislation could dismantle the progress made under President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), industry leaders warn.

According to a joint report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Rhodium Group, more than $161 billion has already been invested in large-scale solar and battery storage projects since the IRA was passed in 2022. But those gains are now in jeopardy.

A Devastating Blow to Solar Energy

The bill effectively kills the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and the Production Tax Credit (PTC)—the financial cornerstones of America’s clean energy expansion. These credits would be eliminated for projects starting 60 days after the bill becomes law or coming online after 2028.

Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), called the legislation “willfully ignorant” and warned it would not only jeopardize clean energy infrastructure but also surrender leadership in global innovation to China.

“If this bill becomes law, America will effectively surrender the AI race to China and communities nationwide will face blackouts,” Hopper stated.

Potential Economic Fallout

The consequences for the U.S. job market and economy could be severe. Sunrun CEO Mary Powell warned in a CNBC interview that up to 250,000 jobs in the solar sector could vanish. Sunrun, a major rooftop solar installer, suffered its worst stock drop ever on Thursday, with shares plunging 37% in a single day.

Meanwhile, Guggenheim analyst Joseph Osha described the bill as “disastrous” for the rooftop solar market. About 70% of residential solar installations rely on leasing models that benefit from these now-targeted tax incentives.

Solar Stocks Tumble

The uncertainty surrounding the bill sent solar-related stocks into a nosedive. Companies like Enphase Energy, SolarEdge, and First Solar all posted significant losses, reflecting the market’s fear that years of growth could be erased almost overnight.

Even as First Solar’s manufacturing tax credits remain in place until 2031, they are still subject to foreign sourcing restrictions—an indirect but major blow, since many essential solar components like glass, lithium, and cobalt are imported from China.

Who Gets Hit Hardest?

Ironically, Republican districts—which overwhelmingly benefited from IRA investments—stand to lose the most. According to data from advocacy group E2, 81% of IRA funding has gone to red districts. Yet, these regions may now experience halted projects, job cuts, and stunted economic growth.

Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.V.) acknowledged the bill’s overreach, telling Politico, “It acts like a blanket repeal of the tax credits... I would expect that to change.”

Why This Matters Now

The U.S. grid is already under strain, and electricity demand is projected to soar due to several converging factors:

• The rise of AI-powered data centers,
• Nationwide reindustrialization,
• And the electrification of transportation and heating systems.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, solar and battery storage will account for 81% of power additions in 2025. Clean energy projects currently represent 92% of power projects waiting for grid interconnection, reports Interconnection.fyi.

Natural gas, often considered the fallback, has limited capacity to scale quickly—new turbines can take 5–6 years to come online, according to Rystad Energy analyst Reid Ramdathsingh.

“Gas can’t meet the demand fast enough,” Ramdathsingh noted. “The biggest viable alternative in the short term is renewables.”

Hope in the Senate?

While the House has passed the bill, the Senate still has to review and potentially amend it. Analysts at Jefferies labeled the bill “unworkable” and expect significant revisions. Industry insiders are lobbying hard to reverse or at least soften its most damaging provisions before it becomes law.

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If the tax bill moves forward unchanged, the U.S. clean energy sector could face a catastrophic slowdown. Job losses, rising electricity costs, and grid instability could follow—all while global competitors charge ahead with renewable innovation. The stakes are high, and the clock is ticking.

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