^{Photo: BBC}

A Deadline Without a Deal: Tariff Pressure Continues

Three months ago, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on sweeping new "reciprocal" tariffs that had jolted global markets. That reprieve was set to expire on July 9. But instead of definitive action, Trump signed an executive order late Monday extending the pause until August 1, pushing back a key moment for the global trade system once again.

Even as U.S. officials cite "significant progress" with countries like India, Brazil, the EU, and various Asian nations, there are still no finalized comprehensive trade deals. The uncertainty continues to weigh on global markets and trading partners, even as stocks appear to have priced in the political unpredictability.

Letters, Tariffs, and Threats: Trump’s Shifting Strategy

Trump’s approach remains fluid—and intentionally so. On Sunday night, the president declared via social media that he would start sending letters outlining either new tariff terms or bilateral trade expectations to partner nations. The first round of letters went to Japan, South Korea, South Africa, Malaysia, and others, highlighting trade imbalances and threatening steep new tariffs if negotiations don’t move forward.

On Monday, Trump followed through with a 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea, with additional tariffs looming for other trading partners. He also threatened the BRICS bloc, calling them a direct challenge to U.S. dominance in the global financial system—even as several BRICS members are currently negotiating trade terms with Washington.

The tactic is simple: keep pressure high and deadlines fluid. Trump and his advisors say this gives the U.S. maximum leverage, even as critics call it chaos dressed up as strategy.

“The ambiguity is the point,” one trade lawyer told CNN. “It’s all about maintaining leverage, not announcing clean victories.”

Where the Negotiations Stand

Progress Made:

• Vietnam: Facing a 46% “reciprocal” tariff, Vietnam agreed to a 20% tariff on certain goods and harsher penalties on Chinese-origin products rerouted through the country. The details are vague, and Vietnamese officials haven’t confirmed the deal is final.
• UK: A framework has been signed but is still being detailed, with little public clarity so far.
• China: An agreement more de-escalation than deal; it reduced tensions but didn’t address structural trade issues.

Pending or Stalled:

• India: Once considered closest to a deal, New Delhi has hardened its stance in recent days, especially after the BRICS-related rhetoric.
• South Korea: Talks hit a snag over auto tariffs; Trump’s Monday letter may have further complicated negotiations.
• Japan: Once optimistic, Japanese officials are now signaling doubt, despite earlier efforts to reach an agreement by the G7 summit.
• European Union: Recent technical discussions have sparked hope, but a full framework is still elusive.
• Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand: These nations have submitted substantial offers recently and may finalize agreements soon.
• Brazil: Intensifying its efforts with a recent proposal to slash tariffs on specific U.S. goods.

However, the core problem remains: foreign trade teams report confusion over U.S. expectations, and negotiations are frequently disrupted by new tariff threats on sensitive sectors like autos, steel, and pharmaceuticals.

Markets Stay Calm, for Now

Despite months of unpredictability, Wall Street has remained resilient, buoyed by strong economic performance and investor fatigue. The U.S. has collected $81.5 billion in tariff revenue through June, and markets have largely adjusted to the ever-shifting rhetoric from the White House.

“The president sees no downside,” one former trade official said. “He’s collected billions, kept pressure on competitors, and maintained control of the narrative.”

Not About Traditional Trade Deals

It’s important to note that the Trump administration is not pursuing traditional trade deals. Instead, it’s seeking flexible, fast-track frameworks focused heavily on U.S. market access, with fewer commitments and regulatory hurdles. These informal agreements allow for more unilateral U.S. action and quicker wins—but come at the cost of legal clarity and long-term stability.

What to Expect Next

With the new August 1 deadline now in place, more executive actions, letters, and surprise tariff announcements are likely in the coming weeks. Whether these tactics bring meaningful agreements or deepen global uncertainty remains to be seen.

What’s clear: the White House has no interest in backing down—and the rest of the world has no choice but to play along.