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50% Tariff on Copper Imports to Begin August 1, Trump Cites National Security Risks

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a 50% tariff on all copper imports will go into effect on August 1, 2025, following what he described as a comprehensive national security assessment. The move, confirmed via a post on Trump’s social media platform Truth Social, underscores the administration’s increasing focus on resource self-sufficiency and strategic defense preparedness.

“Copper is essential for semiconductors, aircraft, ships, ammunition, radar systems, lithium-ion batteries, and even hypersonic weapons,” Trump said. “It is the second-most-used material by the Department of Defense.”

U.S. Market Reacts: Copper Prices Surge While Futures Dip

Following the announcement, spot copper prices in the U.S. rose 2.62%, extending gains from a prior 13.12% surge, which marked the strongest one-day rally since 1989. The sharp rise highlights how sensitive domestic markets are to protectionist policy shifts.

Meanwhile, the three-month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange fell 1.63%, landing at $9,630.50 per ton as of 9:20 a.m. Singapore time. Analysts attribute this to a widening disparity between U.S. copper pricing and global rates, sparked by growing tariff premiums.

According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, by August, American buyers could face copper prices around $15,000 per metric ton, compared to $10,000 globally.

Why Copper? National Security, Tech Dependency & Supply Chain Gaps

Copper is the third-most-consumed metal globally, behind iron and aluminum. It plays a central role in modern infrastructure, renewable energy, and national defense. In the U.S., nearly 50% of copper is imported, with Chile being the leading supplier, based on data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

The decision mirrors earlier actions by the Trump administration, including the doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% in June, as part of a broader effort to bring industrial production back to U.S. soil.

“Copper production must come home,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, speaking to CNBC’s Power Lunch. “We’re aligning copper tariffs with those on steel and aluminum to build domestic resilience.”

Domestic Production: A Long Road Ahead

While the administration is hopeful that these tariffs will boost U.S. production, experts warn that rebuilding the country’s copper supply chain will take time — possibly years or even decades.

“The U.S. simply doesn’t have the production capacity today to replace imports,” said Carlos Miguel Gutierrez, former Commerce Secretary under President George W. Bush. “Even if capacity development begins now, we’re looking at 2027 or 2028 for meaningful output — and only if tariffs remain consistently in place.”

In the short term, U.S. manufacturers will likely face tight copper supplies and elevated input costs, potentially slowing production in industries like electronics, defense, and clean energy.

Strategic Leverage in Global Trade Negotiations

Gutierrez also noted that targeted sectoral tariffs — on copper, steel, aluminum, and potentially pharmaceuticals — could be used as diplomatic tools in ongoing trade negotiations. Canada, also a major copper exporter to the U.S., may be among the nations affected.

“We’re seeing three levels of trade policy here,” said Adam Whiteley of BNY Investments on CNBC’s Squawk Box. “Negotiation tactics, correcting trade imbalances, and then national security tariffs — copper clearly falls into the third category.”

Global Outlook: Copper Supply on the Rise, But Not Fast Enough for U.S.

Looking globally, British research firm BMI projects that world copper mine production will grow at an average of 2.9% annually from 2025 to 2034, reaching 30.9 million metric tons by 2034, up from 23.8 million in 2025.

For 2025 alone, BMI expects global production to rise by 2.5%, supported by:

• Recovered output from Chile
• Expansion at Mongolia’s Oyu Tolgoi mine
• Increased mining activity in Peru, Russia, and Zambia

However, analysts agree this international growth won’t immediately ease U.S. supply challenges, especially as American tariffs drive a wedge between domestic and global copper markets.

A High-Stakes Gamble on Industrial Self-Reliance

The 50% copper tariff is a bold economic move designed to strengthen U.S. national security and manufacturing independence. Yet it comes with short-term risks — from skyrocketing domestic prices to limited local supply — that will test the resilience of American industry and trade partners alike.

As global copper demand surges in the clean tech and defense sectors, the U.S. may be entering a prolonged period of adjustment where policy, geopolitics, and resource strategy converge like never before.