Photo: Sky News

In a fiercely contested run-off election, nationalist Karol Nawrocki—closely aligned with former U.S. President Donald Trump—has secured the Polish presidency with a narrow victory, signaling a potential pivot away from the European Union and shaking up the political balance in Central and Eastern Europe.

Final Vote Margin Reflects Deep Political Divide

The official tally showed Nawrocki clinching 50.89% of the vote, narrowly defeating centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who garnered 49.11%. The margin of victory, just under 2 percentage points, mirrored Poland’s sharply divided electorate.

The election was not just a domestic affair—it captured the attention of Brussels, Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow, given the implications for EU cooperation, NATO commitments, and the war in Ukraine.

Nawrocki, the candidate of the conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS), will succeed Andrzej Duda, another right-leaning president who had previously defeated Trzaskowski by a similarly narrow margin in 2020. Nawrocki’s five-year term begins immediately, and he will be eligible for one re-election.

A Blow to Poland’s Pro-EU Government

Nawrocki’s ascent poses a significant challenge to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European administration. Though the Polish presidency has limited executive powers, the office wields veto authority over legislation—a tool that Duda frequently used to stall Tusk's efforts to align Polish policy with EU standards.

Nawrocki is expected to adopt a similar strategy, potentially hindering reforms aimed at improving Poland’s democratic institutions and rule-of-law standards—reforms that previously unlocked €137 billion ($156 billion) in long-frozen EU funds.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Nawrocki but subtly reinforced Brussels’ position:

“We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values. Let us work to ensure the security and prosperity of our common home.”

Shift in Foreign Policy and Ukraine Relations

Poland has long been one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies, providing billions in military and humanitarian aid and serving as a logistical hub for NATO arms shipments. However, Nawrocki has taken a more skeptical tone on Ukraine during his campaign, accusing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of neglecting Polish interests and rejecting Ukraine’s bid to join NATO, fearing escalation with Russia.

This pivot has unsettled European leaders and could weaken the pro-Ukraine coalition within the EU, especially as Poland began its term as rotating EU Council president in January, under the banner “Security, Europe!”

U.S. Conservatives Celebrate a New Ally in Europe

Nawrocki’s victory marks another chapter in the resurgence of right-wing populism in Europe. His success follows Trump’s re-election campaign momentum and contrasts with recent liberal wins in Portugal and Romania.

In a show of American conservative support, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem spoke at the first Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) held in Poland, endorsing Nawrocki and calling Trzaskowski an “absolute train wreck of a leader.”

“Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol,” said Noem. “You can be that shining city on a hill for all of Europe.”

Poland’s Strategic Value to NATO and the U.S.

Poland remains one of the strongest U.S. allies in Europe, particularly in defense cooperation. Unlike many European NATO members, Poland has consistently exceeded the alliance’s 2% GDP defense spending requirement. In 2024, the country allocated 4.12% of GDP to defense, surpassing even the United States' 3.38%.

Warsaw has invested heavily in American military hardware, including F-35 fighter jets, Patriot missile systems, and Abrams tanks, reinforcing its position as a bulwark on NATO’s eastern flank.

Nawrocki’s presidency is expected to continue this defense partnership, even as relations with the EU become increasingly strained.

What’s Next for Poland and Europe?

As Nawrocki takes office, Poland faces crucial decisions—balancing domestic political shifts, EU funding and compliance, and regional security dynamics. His presidency may serve as a bellwether for Europe’s broader ideological direction and the resilience of the transatlantic alliance.

Whether Nawrocki can maintain national unity while navigating external pressures from Brussels, Washington, and Moscow will determine the future of one of Europe’s most strategically significant nations.