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A Party in Decline

When Sakda Vicheansil, a parliamentarian from Kanchanaburi, announced his resignation from Pheu Thai in early September, his message was blunt: the government had failed its people. His departure highlighted the growing cracks in what was once Thailand’s most dominant political machine, built and sustained for decades by Thaksin Shinawatra.

For over 25 years, Thaksin wielded unmatched influence in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy. But today, at 76, the billionaire-turned-politician is facing a reckoning. His party is losing ground, his daughter has been removed from office, and his own legal troubles threaten to overshadow any chance of a comeback.

The Waning Grip of a Political Titan

Thaksin’s ability to control Thai politics has always been tested by powerful forces — from the conservative establishment to the military. Still, his populist policies made him beloved among millions of rural Thais, ensuring victories in every election since 2001.

That streak ended in 2023. Though Pheu Thai managed to form a coalition that installed Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn, as prime minister, her tenure was short-lived. In a dramatic turn, she was ousted by the Constitutional Court following a leaked conversation with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen — a betrayal that unraveled long-standing alliances.

As coalition partners like Bhumjaithai defected to join forces with the opposition People’s Party, Pheu Thai found itself cornered. The party even went as far as threatening to dissolve parliament if its candidate won the next leadership vote, underscoring its desperation.

Collapsing Popularity

Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s fall mirrors the broader decline of the Shinawatra brand. Nationwide polls show her support has collapsed — dropping from more than 31% in September last year to just 9.2% by June. For a family that once commanded sweeping majorities, these figures are devastating.

Thaksin himself faces mounting legal jeopardy. The Supreme Court is set to rule on the legitimacy of his prolonged hospital stay after returning from self-exile in 2023. If the court finds against him, he could be forced back into prison — a blow that analysts say could end what remains of his political clout.

From Populist Icon to Establishment Insider

Thaksin’s story is one of meteoric rise and spectacular decline. A former policeman who built a fortune in telecoms, he entered politics in the mid-1990s and founded Thai Rak Thai, the party that swept him to power in 2001. His policies — universal healthcare, rural development, and farming subsidies — transformed Thai politics and won him fierce loyalty among the rural poor.

But his success alarmed conservative and royalist elites, leading to his ouster in a 2006 military coup. Even in exile, he pulled strings, backing his sister Yingluck Shinawatra to victory in 2011. She, too, was removed by court order just three years later.

When his daughter took the reins in 2023, it seemed like a family revival. Instead, her swift downfall and the party’s failure to deliver on promises, such as a major cash-handout program, exposed how far the Shinawatra brand had eroded. Many former supporters now view Thaksin as part of the very elite establishment he once opposed.

Fractures Within Pheu Thai

The internal discontent is growing. Several lawmakers have broken ranks in recent weeks, citing economic mismanagement as a breaking point. Farmers are frustrated with lower crop prices, from rice and corn to cassava and beef, while small businesses complain that government relief programs have failed to materialize.

“They just rely on a populist platform that is not working anymore in Thai politics,” said one political analyst. The perception that Thaksin’s once-effective formula has gone stale is spreading both inside and outside the party.

A Political Empire at Risk

For decades, the Shinawatras symbolized a powerful populist wave that reshaped Thailand’s political landscape. Today, they stand at their weakest point in years. With public support dwindling, coalition partners abandoning them, and a legal verdict that could send Thaksin back to prison, the family faces the real prospect of political irrelevance.

Whether Pheu Thai can reinvent itself in the face of these challenges will determine not just the fate of the Shinawatra dynasty, but the trajectory of Thai politics in the years ahead.