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Super Micro Stock Drops Sharply After Earnings Miss and Conservative Outlook

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) shares fell 15% in after-hours trading on Tuesday, as the company reported fiscal Q4 2025 results that missed analyst expectations on both earnings and revenue, and issued a disappointing outlook for the upcoming quarter.

This marks a sharp pullback for a stock that had otherwise gained 88% year-to-date, outperforming the broader S&P 500, which is up about 7% over the same period.

Q4 2025 Earnings Snapshot

Here’s how Super Micro performed compared to Wall Street expectations from LSEG:

• Adjusted earnings per share (EPS): $0.41 (vs. $0.44 expected)
• Revenue: $5.76 billion (vs. $5.89 billion expected)
• Net income: $195.2 million (down from $297.2 million YoY)
• Net EPS (GAAP): $0.31 per share (vs. $0.46 per share YoY)

Revenue grew 7.5% year-over-year for the quarter ended June 30, but net profit fell by more than 34%, impacted in part by new tariff measures introduced by President Trump that raised import costs for critical components.

CEO Charles Liang acknowledged the tariff-related headwinds during the earnings call, stating,

“Although we have taken measures to reduce the impact, the results will take some time to materialize.”

Q1 2026 Guidance Disappoints

For the fiscal Q1 2026, Super Micro issued a cautious forecast:

• Expected revenue: $6 billion to $7 billion
• Expected adjusted EPS: $0.40 to $0.52
• LSEG consensus: $6.6 billion in revenue and $0.59 EPS

This guidance came in below consensus and signaled a softening growth trajectory, especially as the AI server demand that fueled its 2023 surge has started to normalize.

However, on a brighter note, Super Micro said it expects fiscal year 2026 revenue of at least $33 billion, exceeding analysts’ consensus of $29.94 billion.

Growth Slows After AI Boom

Super Micro was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI wave in late 2023 and early 2024, as demand for its Nvidia-powered data center servers surged. But that momentum has slowed, and the company now faces challenges from macroeconomic pressures, tariffs, and normalizing demand.

The company's ability to maintain the momentum it built during the AI hype cycle is now under scrutiny. Investors are increasingly focused on whether Super Micro can diversify its product portfolio, maintain pricing power, and continue expanding internationally.

Past Setbacks and Nasdaq Compliance

Super Micro also previously faced scrutiny due to delays in quarterly financial filings and the departure of its external auditor, raising concerns about governance. The company narrowly avoided Nasdaq delisting earlier this year, restoring compliance after addressing reporting issues.

Analyst Takeaways

While some analysts remain bullish on Super Micro’s long-term potential — especially given its leadership in AI server infrastructure — others are taking a more cautious view.

With profit margins narrowing, AI tailwinds fading, and geopolitical risks increasing, the near-term growth story may be more complex than it appeared just a few quarters ago.

Final Thoughts

Despite a stellar run in early 2025, Super Micro’s recent earnings miss and weak guidance have shaken investor confidence. As it enters a more mature phase of growth, the company will need to navigate global headwinds, manage costs, and reignite momentum beyond its AI boom narrative.