Russia is making a renewed push to establish itself as a serious player in the global rare earths market — a sector dominated by China for more than three decades. President Vladimir Putin has directed officials to finalize a comprehensive roadmap for rare earth extraction and production by December 1, a move analysts say highlights Moscow’s urgency to secure a foothold in the booming market for critical minerals.

Rare earth elements (REEs) are essential components in advanced technologies — from electric vehicles and smartphones to military equipment and wind turbines. As global demand surges, competition for reliable supply sources has escalated, positioning rare earths as one of the most strategically important resources of the 21st century.

Russia’s Place in the Global Race

China continues to lead the rare earth industry, accounting for roughly 69% of global processing capacity and over 60% of mining output. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the world holds around 110 million tonnes of rare earth deposits, with China controlling 44 million tonnes, followed by Brazil (21 million tonnes), India, and Australia.

Russia ranks fifth globally, with an estimated 3.8 million tonnes of reserves — more than double that of the United States, which has about 1.9 million tonnes. However, despite its natural endowment, Russia’s current production is only 2,500 metric tons annually, accounting for just 0.64% of global output in 2024.

The Kremlin hopes to change that. Putin’s directive calls for the creation of a “long-term development plan” aimed at expanding mining operations, refining capacity, and export potential by 2030.

Economic and Geopolitical Context

Russia’s rare earth ambitions come at a critical geopolitical moment. The global race for supply chain independence has intensified as nations seek to reduce dependence on China. The United States, in particular, has prioritized securing new sources of critical minerals, spurred by China’s temporary export restrictions following U.S. trade tariffs earlier this year.

Tensions have even influenced strategic negotiations: Washington is reportedly exploring rare earth partnerships with Ukraine — a country with significant mineral deposits in its south and east, some under Russian occupation. Former President Donald Trump has also expressed interest in resource-rich Greenland, underscoring the geopolitical importance of mineral access.

Putin, recognizing the global demand, has suggested Russia is open to joint ventures with foreign partners in mining and processing — an apparent effort to attract investment and technology. However, Western sanctions and the ongoing war in Ukraine may limit Moscow’s ability to secure major Western deals in the near term.

Domestic Potential and Resource Uncertainty

While Western estimates put Russia’s reserves at around 3.8 million tonnes, the Russian Natural Resources Ministry claims the country holds 28.5 million tonnes across 15 different rare earth metals, suggesting potential underreporting by foreign sources.

Analysts, however, caution that the quality and accessibility of these deposits remain uncertain. “Russia’s resource data is opaque,” said Willis Thomas, principal consultant at CRU Group. “Some reserves are likely lower-grade, while others are undisclosed for strategic or financial reasons.”

Russia’s production challenges stem not only from geology but also from a lack of advanced refining infrastructure. Mining, experts say, is the easier step — the real bottleneck lies in processing and separation, an area where China has decades of expertise and economies of scale.

Strategic Dilemma: East or West?

As Russia looks to scale up its rare earth sector, a crucial question looms — will it align more closely with China or attempt to build new ties with the West?

China already processes most of the world’s rare earths and increasingly relies on imported raw materials from Myanmar, Malaysia, and Laos to feed its refineries. Russia could become a significant supplier to China’s processing ecosystem, especially as Chinese domestic deposits decline in quality.

Analysts at CRU suggest that current geopolitical realities make this eastern alignment more likely. “Because of the war and sanctions, Russia will have to sell to China,” said critical metals analyst Piyush Goel. “Western manufacturers are unlikely to buy Russian supply anytime soon. That means Russia will see limited price premiums despite global demand.”

However, Goel notes that this partnership could still prove beneficial: “China’s deposits will eventually degrade, and that’s where Russian supply could step in to fill the gap.”

Global Market Outlook

The global rare earths market is projected to exceed $15 billion by 2030, driven by electric vehicle manufacturing, renewable energy expansion, and defense applications. Demand for neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium — essential for high-performance magnets — is expected to rise by more than 250% over the next decade.

Russia’s roadmap aims to capture a share of this growth through domestic production and export diversification. Yet success will depend on overcoming structural challenges — from refining capability and capital access to geopolitical isolation.

The Road Ahead

As the December 1 deadline approaches, Moscow’s plan is expected to outline new exploration incentives, public-private partnerships, and state-backed investment in processing technology. Whether Russia can close the decades-long gap with China remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the global rare earths race is entering a new and highly competitive phase.

If Russia can successfully modernize its extraction and refining capabilities, it could emerge as a formidable — if late — contender in a market critical to the world’s technological and energy future.