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Manhattan’s Decade of Declining Condo Values

New data shows Manhattan’s condo market has weakened significantly over the past decade, creating financial losses for a growing share of sellers. Between July 2024 and July 2025, one out of every three condos sold in Manhattan closed at a loss, according to Brown Harris Stevens. While selling at a loss isn’t unheard of in a market known for high transaction costs and elevated taxes, the scale and duration of the price softening are not typical for the borough.

In 2015, buyers paid roughly $1,562 per square foot for Manhattan real estate. By late 2025, that figure had plunged to $1,108 per square foot, based on Redfin’s market data. These long-term declines are a departure from the borough’s historical trend of steady appreciation.

Why Condo Demand Has Fallen

Several factors have fed into Manhattan’s falling condo prices. One of the largest is the tightening of U.S. monetary policy from 2022 to 2024, which pushed mortgage rates higher and reduced purchasing power. At the same time, foreign buyer demand — once a major engine for Manhattan’s luxury market — has slowed considerably.

Shifts in foreign exchange rates have made U.S. properties significantly more expensive for international investors. With the U.S. dollar strengthening against currencies such as the euro, many potential overseas buyers have stepped back.

Experts say this reduction in foreign investment created a gap that local buyers alone have not been able to fill. “There is likely more upside in the next decade than in the last one,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, pointing to how deeply the market has already corrected.

Affordability Challenges Push Residents Toward Renting

For much of the middle and upper-middle class, Manhattan buying has become increasingly out of reach. Even for well-paid professionals, the math is prohibitive. The median Manhattan condo now sells for about $1,650,000. With a 20 percent down payment and a 6.25 percent mortgage, monthly principal and interest payments exceed $8,000.

As a result, many younger professionals — even those with parental financial support — are turning to the rental market instead of buying. Demand from local New Yorkers, rather than international investors, is now driving much of the activity in the borough.

“That’s why rents have surged. People simply can’t afford to buy, so they stay renters longer,” explained real estate attorney Pierre Debbas.

Rents Surge to New Highs

The rental market is experiencing the opposite trend. Manhattan’s median rent has reached $4,973 per month, up 10 percent in just one year, according to Zumper. With buying largely unattainable, high-income households are choosing to rent for longer periods, compressing supply and accelerating price increases.

This shift is particularly noticeable in neighborhoods that previously attracted buyers moving up the property ladder. Many of these residents are delaying purchases until mortgage rates fall or prices stabilize.

Policy Shifts and Future Market Pressures

Manhattan’s political climate is also adding uncertainty. Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani ran on an affordability platform focused on raising taxes on high-income residents and freezing rents on roughly 1 million rent-stabilized units. Industry analysts warn that strict rent controls could lead landlords to shift costs to unregulated units — a pool of about 1.2 million apartments — which could push market-rate rents even higher.

“If rent-stabilized units are frozen, landlords will likely adjust pricing on the units they can control,” said Miller. This dynamic may create further upward pressure in an already expensive rental market.

Overall Outlook

Manhattan is in an unusual phase: condo prices are soft, sellers are absorbing losses, and foreign dollars aren’t flowing in as before — yet rents are escalating to historic highs. Until mortgage rates ease or international demand returns, experts expect the rental market to remain tight and condo prices to stay subdued, leaving many New Yorkers in a holding pattern between renting and buying.