^{Photo: India Shipping News}

Global shipping heavyweight A.P. Moller-Maersk reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and lifted its full-year earnings guidance, signaling that global trade remains more robust than many economists feared. The Danish company — often viewed as a key indicator of worldwide economic health — credited the upgrade to resilient demand and effective cost management amid persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

Maersk’s preliminary underlying EBITDA for the third quarter came in at $2.68 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.6 billion compiled by LSEG, though still down from $4.8 billion a year earlier when pandemic-related supply chain congestion had inflated shipping rates.

Following the earnings release, the company raised its 2025 full-year operating profit guidance to a range of $9 billion to $9.5 billion, compared to a prior range of $8 billion to $9.5 billion.

A Story of Resilience in a Fragile Global Economy

Speaking to CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe, Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc emphasized that the improved outlook reflects the “resilience of global trade” despite macroeconomic challenges.

“What allowed us to raise the guidance was really a story of resilience,” Clerc explained. “Resilience of demand across all geographies — even in the U.S., which began to rebound towards the end of the quarter as we approached the year-end shipping peak.”

Clerc highlighted that Maersk’s operational efficiency had also been key. “Despite inflationary pressures and uncertainty in energy and logistics costs, we’ve trimmed expenses and protected margins across all business divisions,” he said.

While Maersk’s shares dipped more than 6% in early Thursday trading, the company’s stock remains up roughly 5% year-to-date, underlining long-term investor confidence in its adaptability amid shifting global trade patterns.

Trade Recovery Gathers Momentum

In a sign of renewed optimism, Maersk also upgraded its global container market growth forecast for 2025 to around 4%, up from its earlier estimate of 2%–4%. The revision suggests that trade flows between major economies — especially Asia, Europe, and North America — are stabilizing after several years of volatility driven by pandemic disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and supply chain realignments.

“Contrary to the widespread narrative that globalization is in retreat, we’re actually seeing trade volumes expand,” Clerc said. “The world’s manufacturing networks remain deeply interconnected, and China continues to serve as a major driver of global industrial demand.”

Indeed, recent industry data show that China’s exports rebounded in late 2024, buoyed by strong shipments of electronics, machinery, and electric vehicles to Southeast Asia, Europe, and Latin America. This uptick has supported containerized shipping routes, particularly from Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Ningbo, where throughput volumes rose by over 8% year-on-year, according to Chinese port authorities.

Navigating Challenges While Positioning for Growth

Maersk’s focus on diversification and operational agility appears to be paying off. The company has been actively transitioning from a pure ocean shipping provider into an integrated logistics operator, expanding its footprint in warehousing, supply chain technology, and air freight.

Despite facing headwinds from volatile freight rates, high fuel costs, and ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, Maersk’s strategy of investing in automation and digital logistics platforms has helped offset market instability.

Industry analysts note that the company’s shift toward end-to-end logistics solutions could position it for stronger profitability as global supply chains continue to evolve. “Maersk’s integrated approach means it can capture more value beyond the port,” said a shipping industry expert at Alphaliner. “That gives it flexibility in an increasingly unpredictable trade environment.”

The Bigger Picture: Globalization Is Adapting, Not Dying

Clerc’s remarks push back against predictions of a lasting decline in globalization. “Talk about the death of global trade has been quite premature,” he said. “We continue to see a high level of economic integration — not just between China and the West, but also within emerging regions like Southeast Asia and Africa.”

The World Trade Organization (WTO) recently projected that global merchandise trade volume could grow by 3.7% in 2025, supported by easing supply chain bottlenecks and recovering consumer demand. However, risks remain — including the potential for new trade restrictions, higher interest rates, and escalating regional tensions that could disrupt key maritime routes.

For now, Maersk’s upgraded guidance suggests that international commerce is proving far more resilient than many expected, with the company serving as both a beneficiary and bellwether of this recovery.

As Clerc summed it up: “Trade isn’t dying — it’s adapting. And companies like ours are evolving right alongside it.”