^{Photo: NBC News}

Japan’s political stage is entering one of its most turbulent phases in years as Sanae Takaichi, president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), faces mounting challenges in her pursuit of the premiership. Once seen as the clear frontrunner to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Takaichi’s rise has been complicated by the sudden departure of coalition partner Komeito and growing momentum among opposition parties seeking to unite against the LDP.

The political realignment comes at a critical time for Japan, where uncertainty in leadership is already weighing on market confidence and delaying policy initiatives.

A fragile majority
The LDP currently holds 196 seats in Japan’s 465-member Lower House, making it the single largest political bloc but far short of a majority. Traditionally, the ruling party leader becomes prime minister, especially between elections, but the loss of Komeito — which had partnered with the LDP for over 26 years — has left the government in an unsteady position.

Komeito’s sudden withdrawal on October 10 forced the postponement of the prime ministerial vote, initially planned for October 16, now rescheduled for October 21. This move has given opposition parties additional time to coordinate and potentially form a united front capable of challenging the LDP’s dominance.

Opposition unity gaining traction
For years, Japan’s fragmented opposition has struggled to pose a credible alternative to LDP rule. But recent developments suggest that dynamic could shift. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) is reportedly in discussions with Komeito to endorse a joint candidate, while the Democratic Party for the People (DPP) has publicly stated its refusal to align with the LDP.

Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the DPP, has even expressed willingness to serve as prime minister if backed by the CDP and other opposition factions. Local media reports indicate that Tamaki could emerge as a consensus candidate—a scenario that would unite key opposition forces including the CDP, DPP, and Nippon Ishin no Kai.

Together, these three parties would control 210 seats, surpassing the LDP’s total but still short of the 233 seats required for a parliamentary majority. According to a note from Bank of America, the focus will now shift to the runoff stage of the two-step prime ministerial vote, where cross-party negotiations could determine the final outcome.

“If the opposition manages to stay unified, the LDP could face one of its toughest leadership challenges in decades,” the note added.

The LDP’s potential silver lining
Despite the immediate setback, some political analysts argue that Komeito’s departure could ultimately strengthen the LDP’s hand. Freed from the constraints of coalition compromises, the party could advance long-delayed policy goals — particularly in fiscal reform, tax restructuring, and defense.

Tomohiko Taniguchi, Special Advisor at the Fujitsu Future Studies Center, told CNBC that the split allows the LDP “to pursue more assertive policy directions without being held back by Komeito’s more moderate stances.” He added that tax reforms and pro-business policies, which were often diluted in coalition negotiations, may now find renewed traction under Takaichi’s leadership.

Similarly, Jesper Koll, expert director at Monex Group, remarked that “Komeito has outlived its purpose for the LDP,” suggesting the breakup may serve as a necessary reset. “Takaichi is forcing the issue and laying the groundwork for a more ideologically unified LDP,” he said.

A test of leadership
Yet, optimism within the LDP is far from unanimous. Critics have accused Takaichi of mismanaging the party’s long-standing alliance with Komeito, with some insiders warning that her leadership may already be compromised.

A November note from Quantum Strategy described her leadership as “deeply weakened,” claiming she has “made a political miscalculation by losing a coalition partner that provided stability for over two decades.” Even if Takaichi secures the prime ministership later this month, analysts warn she could emerge as a “lame-duck leader”—a figurehead without the parliamentary strength to push through reforms.

What lies ahead
With the next general election not due until October 2028, Japan could be facing an extended period of political gridlock unless a decisive leader emerges. The outcome of the October 21 parliamentary vote will likely determine whether Japan continues under an LDP-led government or sees a historic power shift driven by opposition unity.

As Japan navigates slowing economic growth, rising defense challenges, and a rapidly aging population, the country’s political uncertainty has far-reaching implications. For Takaichi, the coming weeks could determine not just her place in history as Japan’s first female prime minister — but whether she can hold onto power at all.