^{Source: RNZ}

The battle for Australia’s next prime minister is heating up, and Peter Dutton, the leader of the opposition Liberal Party, is under increasing scrutiny. Dutton has spent weeks distancing himself from comparisons to U.S. President Donald Trump, despite growing concerns that his political approach mirrors Trump’s populist tactics. As Dutton faces off against the incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, political analysts are closely watching the race—especially as Dutton’s Trumpian rhetoric might not be the electoral asset he hopes it will be.

Dutton’s Trumpian Struggle

Peter Dutton, who assumed leadership of the Liberal Party following its defeat three years ago, is no stranger to controversy. Known for his hard-right views on immigration, national security, and public broadcasting, Dutton has drawn frequent comparisons to Trump, leading some to label him “Temu Trump,” referring to the Chinese e-commerce platform known for selling cheap copies of popular goods.

This comparison has negatively impacted Dutton’s political fortunes. Despite his strongman reputation, which once seemed poised to secure a victory over Prime Minister Albanese, polling shows Dutton is now trailing Albanese in key battlegrounds. Experts like Frank Bongiorno, a professor at the Australian National University, suggest that Dutton's tactics align closely with right-wing populism, making his political rhetoric eerily similar to Trump’s.

Dutton’s strategy, which includes heavy critiques of the media, immigration, and what he calls "woke" politics, initially appeared to resonate with a segment of the Australian electorate. But the Trump-like approach seems to have backfired, as seen in the struggles of Canadian conservatives who were also impacted by the "Trump slump." Dutton’s critics now warn that these populist tactics may cost him the election, especially with a seat as vulnerable as his own in Dickson, a suburban Brisbane constituency where he holds a slim 1.7% lead.

The Trump Slump: A Global Phenomenon

The “Trump slump” is a term gaining traction in political circles, particularly after recent events in Canada, where the Conservative Party struggled to secure a victory amid rising populist sentiments. Australian analysts are now warning that a similar trend could unfold in the upcoming election.

Marija Taflaga, the director of the Center for the Study of Australian Politics at the Australian National University, notes that the presence of Trump’s influence—both in rhetoric and political style—has shifted the tide in countries like Canada and may do the same in Australia. While Trump’s brand of nationalism and populism once held significant appeal, recent global political dynamics have made such an approach less effective, with voters gravitating toward a more pragmatic, centrist outlook.

Dutton, like his Canadian counterpart Pierre Poilievre, faces the possibility of electoral defeat as a result of his Trump-style politics. The looming threat of losing his own seat in Dickson highlights the deepening concerns surrounding his leadership.

The Cost-of-Living Crisis: The Major Election Issue

While Dutton has tried to appeal to voters through promises of large-scale federal job cuts, an overhaul of work-from-home policies, and sweeping changes to Australia’s education system, the cost-of-living crisis remains the key issue in the election. Both the Liberal and Labor parties are promising tax cuts and financial relief, but Dutton’s proposals to slash government spending may alienate voters who are already feeling the strain of rising living costs.

Trump and Tariffs: A Growing Concern

Another challenge facing Dutton’s campaign is the influence of Trump’s trade policies. Earlier this year, President Trump’s decision to impose global tariffs on key industries, such as aluminum, sparked anger among Australian businesses and voters. The U.S. administration’s hostile stance towards Australian exports has raised questions about the reliability of the U.S. as a long-term strategic ally, further damaging Dutton’s attempts to align himself with Trump’s policies.

Older Australian voters, in particular, are feeling the economic pinch as the U.S. tariffs impact Australian export prices, with many retirees witnessing their investment portfolios take a hit. As U.S.-Australia relations sour, some Australian voters are reconsidering Dutton’s Trump-inspired policies, with some critics fearing that a Trump-like approach to trade and international relations could isolate Australia on the global stage.

The Election Pivot: Dutton’s Strategy Backfires

In what was seen as a clear play for Trump supporters, Dutton’s campaign was initially positioned for success. However, following the announcement of U.S. tariffs and the resulting backlash, the election pivoted, and the Australian electorate began to rethink their support for a leader who appeared to embrace Trump’s controversial tactics.

In a recent debate, Dutton was asked about his trust in Donald Trump. Eager to distance himself from the U.S. president, Dutton claimed, “I don’t know Donald Trump; I’ve never met him.” This remark was an attempt to move away from the perceived negative influence of Trump’s leadership.

The China Factor: A Distant Threat

Another issue that has played a role in shaping the election campaign is China’s growing military presence near Australia. Despite heightened tensions, discussions of China’s threat to national security have been more subdued in this election cycle. During the 2022 election, China’s actions led to a harsh stance by the Liberal Party, but this time, the conversation around China has shifted, with more focus being placed on Trump’s unpredictability rather than Chinese military threats.

Some analysts argue that Trump’s behavior has overshadowed China’s actions in Australia’s national security discussions. Dutton and Albanese have both supported AUKUS, Australia’s defense agreement with the U.S. and the UK, but critics of the agreement point to Trump’s unstable leadership as a potential danger to Australia’s national security.

The Path to a Minority Government

Polling indicates that Albanese will likely win the election, but it remains unclear whether he will secure enough votes for a majority. The rise of Millennial and Gen Z voters, who tend to lean progressive, could make it difficult for Albanese to form a majority government. These younger voters are expected to challenge the status quo, potentially pushing for a more anti-establishment political environment.

With Dutton facing significant challenges both in his own seat and as a national leader, many observers believe the future of the Liberal Party is uncertain. As Bongiorno from the Australian National University suggests, Dutton’s campaign has failed to fully capitalize on voter dissatisfaction with Labor, leaving him vulnerable to a potential loss.

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The upcoming Australian election will be a critical moment for the country’s political future. With comparisons to Donald Trump continuing to plague Peter Dutton, the question remains whether his Trump-like rhetoric will galvanize enough support or backfire at the polls. As Australians head to the polls on Saturday, it’s clear that this election is no ordinary race—it’s one that could redefine the future direction of Australian politics.

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