^{People shop at a mall decorated with holiday lights in New York, Dec. 18, 2025.}

^{Spencer Platt | Getty Images}

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Early Reports Signal Steady Holiday Sales

Several major retailers, including Lululemon, Birkenstock, Savers Value Village, American Eagle, and Abercrombie & Fitch, have released early results for the critical holiday shopping season ahead of the ICR conference in Orlando, Florida. The data largely met expectations, showing solid growth but no dramatic surprises.

Lululemon, which is preparing for a CEO transition and a proxy battle with its founder, projected fiscal fourth-quarter revenue near $3.60 billion and earnings of approximately $4.76 per share, at the high end of its prior guidance. The company maintained its targets for gross margin, effective tax rate, and operating expenses, with shares up around 1% in early trading.

Mixed Performance Across Retailers

Birkenstock expects holiday-quarter sales to rise 11% to €402 million ($470 million), while Savers Value Village reported an 8.4% increase in total sales and a 5.4% gain in comparable sales, reaffirming its prior fiscal 2025 guidance. Shares of both companies moved slightly higher in premarket trading.

Abercrombie & Fitch cut the high end of its guidance despite reporting record quarter-to-date sales. It now expects full-year sales growth of at least 6%, with operating margins around 13% and earnings per share between $10.30 and $10.40, down from prior guidance. Shares fell more than 18% following the announcement.

Conversely, American Eagle posted stronger-than-expected results. Comparable sales through Jan. 3 were up in the high single digits, with the Aerie brand seeing low-20s growth. The retailer raised its fourth-quarter operating income to $167–$170 million from $155–$160 million previously. Despite the positive results, shares declined 9% on Monday.

Five Below reported even more robust results, with quarter-to-date sales rising 23.2% and comparable sales up 14.5%. The company raised its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue guidance to $1.71 billion and earnings per share to $3.93–$3.98, nearly doubling its previous outlook. Shares dipped about 1% in early trading.

Key Trends Driving Consumer Behavior

Analysts note that higher prices, influenced by tariffs and inflation, have kept spending growth moderate. While consumers continue to shop, volume gains are expected to be largely flat, offsetting the impact of stronger pricing. Retailers are balancing strategic discounting with efforts to clear older inventory, as seen with Lululemon’s wider use of markdowns during Thanksgiving.

The National Retail Federation forecasts retail sales for November and December to rise between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024. While solid, the growth is more reflective of price increases than higher purchase volumes.

Outlook for the Retail Sector

The early holiday results highlight a season of measured optimism. Some retailers are seeing strong momentum and raising guidance, while others face pressure from higher costs and competitive dynamics. Analysts expect this trend to continue, with standout performers achieving notable growth but overall consumer spending remaining steady rather than surging.

Retailers are closely monitoring customer response to product assortment, discounting strategies, and evolving shopping behavior, aiming to capture value without sacrificing profitability as the post-holiday period begins.