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China’s goods exports fell by 1.1 % year-on-year in October, marking the first decline since March 2024 and reversing a robust 8.3 % rise registered in September. Analysts had expected growth of around +3 %, underscoring how the drop caught markets off guard.
At the same time, imports rose by only 1.0 %, well below the forecast of 3.2 % growth, and down significantly from September’s +7.4 % jump — highlighting weakness not just in exports but also in domestic demand.
Shipments from China to the U.S. dropped approximately 25 % in October compared with the same month last year, marking the seventh consecutive month of double-digit decline in that bilateral flow. The U.S. market, which once absorbed over $400 billion in Chinese goods annually, is shrinking fast as companies re-route supply chains and tariffs bite.
Economists estimate the loss of U.S. demand shaved about 2 percentage points off China’s export growth, equivalent to nearly 0.3 % of GDP in drag for the month.
Several intertwined factors help explain the downturn:
While the U.S. market falters, China is shifting its focus:
The export slip comes at a tricky moment for China’s growth model. With external demand softening and domestic consumption still sluggish, policymakers face a balancing act: stimulate the economy enough to hit growth targets, but avoid reigniting asset bubbles or over-capacity.
Forecasts from some institutions project China’s real GDP growth at 4.5 % in 2026, with export growth of perhaps 3-5 % annually under modest stimulus scenarios. With exports losing steam, the government is increasingly leaning on domestic demand — boosting infrastructure, easing property policy and encouraging household consumption.
The weakening export outlook may prompt more aggressive fiscal or monetary support in early 2026 — yet structural reforms (such as improving household income and shifting away from investment-led growth) remain critical if China is to reduce its dependence on global trade.
The October export data is a clear signal: the era of rapid trade-driven growth is under strain, and China’s ability to adapt matters — not just for its own economy, but for global markets tied into its production and demand cycles.









