^{Photo: Washington Times}

A series of rapid-fire phone calls between U.S. President Donald Trump and the leaders of China and Japan has done little to relieve the mounting friction between Beijing and Tokyo. Analysts warn that the current diplomatic standoff, triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on Taiwan, is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon.

The situation has now evolved into a three-way strategic dilemma, with Washington’s silence adding further uncertainty for both Japan and Taiwan.

How the Dispute Escalated

Prime Minister Takaichi spoke with President Trump on Tuesday, only hours after Trump’s separate call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The timing underscored the urgency surrounding the issue, as Beijing and Tokyo each sought clarity on the U.S. position.

The tensions began after Takaichi outlined how Japan might respond to a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan. Beijing immediately demanded that she retract the comments. While Takaichi agreed to avoid mentioning specific military scenarios in the future, she refused to withdraw her original statement.

Her refusal has become the core of the crisis. Analysts at Eurasia Group argue that Beijing’s firm reaction stems from Takaichi’s unusually direct language, and that China intends to pressure her politically until she softens her stance.

Beijing’s Expectations and Washington’s Ambiguity

According to China’s official readout of Xi’s call with Trump, Xi pushed the U.S. to safeguard the post-World War II international order and to discourage provocative rhetoric surrounding Taiwan. Yet Trump’s public summary of the conversation made no mention of Taiwan, focusing instead on issues such as the war in Ukraine, fentanyl, and agricultural trade.

Xi reportedly took the unusual step of requesting the call himself, highlighting how seriously Beijing views the situation. Chinese officials hope Trump will use his influence to temper Japan’s language around Taiwan.

However, the White House has offered no public clarification. This silence has unsettled both Tokyo and Taipei, as noted by Dennis Wilder of Georgetown University, who warned that neither ally knows where Washington stands at a moment of heightened tension.

Economic Pressure and Diplomatic Maneuvering

China has responded with economic measures, restricting imports of Japanese seafood, warning its citizens to avoid travel to Japan, and urging Chinese residents in the country to increase personal safety measures. These actions mirror previous examples of China’s economic coercion, such as the pressure applied to South Korea in 2017 following the deployment of the THAAD missile-defense system.

Despite these moves, analysts believe neither China nor Japan wants the situation to spiral into military confrontation. Economic interdependence remains significant, and both governments understand the consequences of an armed clash.

Still, Beijing has emphasized that there is “no room for compromise,” leaving Tokyo few diplomatic options. Even when Japan sent a senior foreign ministry official to Beijing in an attempt to cool tensions, the visit produced no tangible progress.

Strategic Stakes for China, Japan, and the U.S.

Experts note that Xi views Taiwan as central to his long-term legacy, making him particularly sensitive to statements from foreign leaders. Takaichi’s comments directly touched on one of Beijing’s most uncompromising red lines.

At the same time, analysts such as Alice Han argue that the Trump administration is far less willing than past U.S. administrations to risk military involvement over Taiwan, preferring instead to focus on trade balances and economic negotiations with China. This divergence adds another layer of complexity for Japan, which depends heavily on U.S. security guarantees.

What Comes Next

While all parties seem intent on avoiding direct conflict, the path toward resolution looks slow and uncertain. Historical precedent suggests that diplomatic rifts involving China’s economic retaliation can take years to unwind, as seen with Australia and South Korea.

With Beijing maintaining a hard line and Takaichi standing firm, the dispute is likely to persist. As one analyst put it, the region may need to prepare for an extended period of political tension with no clear resolution on the horizon.