^{Photo: BBC}

Disney’s latest return to Pandora got off to a slower start than expected. “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” the third installment in James Cameron’s blockbuster franchise, earned $88 million in its domestic opening weekend, falling short of industry projections that had pegged the debut between $110 million and $125 million.

While the opening was underwhelming by modern blockbuster standards, especially when compared to 2022’s “Avatar: The Way of Water,” industry analysts caution against writing off the film too quickly. The Avatar franchise has historically relied on endurance rather than explosive first weekends, often building momentum over months instead of days.

Opening numbers trail expectations

Over its first three days in North American theaters, “Fire and Ash” brought in $88 million, a noticeable step down from “The Way of Water,” which debuted with $134 million domestically. The performance also reflects a drop in audience turnout, with an estimated 5.2 million moviegoers attending opening weekend screenings, compared with 8.7 million for the previous film’s debut.

International markets provided a stronger boost. Overseas ticket sales reached $257 million, lifting the film’s global opening weekend total to approximately $345 million. As with earlier Avatar releases, international audiences once again accounted for the majority of early box office revenue.

Headwinds at the box office

Several factors weighed on the film’s opening. At more than three hours long, “Fire and Ash” faces practical limitations, including fewer daily showtimes per screen. That runtime constraint has increasingly become a challenge for event films seeking massive opening weekends.

There was also less pent-up demand this time around. “The Way of Water” arrived more than a decade after the original “Avatar,” creating a sense of anticipation that was difficult to replicate so soon after a recent sequel. Some critics and box office analysts have also pointed to the film’s more incremental technological advances, noting that earlier Avatar entries drew crowds partly due to groundbreaking visual innovations.

A franchise built on longevity

Despite the soft opening, history suggests patience may be warranted. The Avatar franchise has never been heavily front-loaded. The original “Avatar” opened to just $77 million domestically in 2009, a modest figure even at the time, before going on to become the highest-grossing film in history with $2.7 billion during its initial run and $2.9 billion including re-releases.

Similarly, “The Way of Water” stayed in theaters for 23 weeks and ultimately generated $2.3 billion worldwide, benefiting from strong word of mouth and repeat viewings.

Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore, noted that Avatar films are known for their marathon box office performance rather than explosive starts. He added that while expectations for “Fire and Ash” were high given the calendar timing and franchise legacy, its slightly weaker opening does not preclude a long and profitable theatrical run.

Premium formats remain a key driver

One area where “Fire and Ash” continues to excel is premium ticket sales. Disney reported that 66 percent of the film’s opening weekend revenue came from premium large-format screens such as IMAX and Dolby Cinema, as well as 3D showings.

While 3D has lost favor with many domestic audiences, it remains a powerful draw internationally, particularly in markets like China. Historically, Avatar films have generated the bulk of their revenue overseas, with the original film earning more than $2 billion outside the United States alone.

Higher-priced premium formats not only boost per-ticket revenue but also support longer theatrical legs, as audiences seeking immersive experiences often return for repeat viewings.

The road ahead for Disney and Pandora

With the holiday season and international markets still in play, Disney is betting that “Fire and Ash” will follow the familiar Avatar pattern of slow-burn success. Strong overseas demand, premium format dominance, and the franchise’s proven staying power could help close the gap between its opening weekend and long-term expectations.

While the debut may have disappointed relative to forecasts, the Avatar universe has repeatedly defied conventional box office logic. If past installments are any guide, “Fire and Ash” may still find its stride not in its opening frame, but over the many weeks that follow.