^{Source: Rediff}

Australia’s equity markets reacted bearishly on Monday following Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s historic re-election. The S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.97%, closing at 8,157.80, reversing gains from the previous session. Albanese became the first Australian prime minister in over two decades to secure a second consecutive term, signaling policy continuity.

However, markets turned cautious, with traders anticipating potential shifts in fiscal and climate policies under the Labor government. Global economic uncertainty also added to investor wariness.

India vs. Taiwan: Diverging Market Sentiments

In Taiwan, the benchmark Taiex index dropped 1.23% to 20,532.99, pressured by tech stocks and ongoing geopolitical concerns with China. The decline followed disappointing manufacturing order data and general risk aversion among local investors.

Meanwhile, India’s markets advanced:

• Nifty 50 rose 0.45%
• BSE Sensex gained 0.37%

The rally was led by a strong performance from the Adani Group, which surged across the board following reports of progress in a long-standing U.S. bribery investigation. Bloomberg reported that Adani officials met with U.S. authorities, boosting optimism.

Adani stock highlights:

• Adani Green Energy: +7.71%
• Adani Power: +7.73%
• Adani Enterprises: +7.41%
• Adani Ports: +7.24%
• Adani Energy Solutions: +4.88%

Veteran investor Mark Mobius voiced long-term optimism in India, citing favorable demographics, a rising tech sector, and strong internal consumption. He also highlighted Brazil, Vietnam, and Taiwan as attractive emerging markets.

Indonesia: Growth Slows More Than Expected

Indonesia posted its slowest quarterly GDP growth since Q3 2021, expanding just 4.87% year-over-year in Q1. This missed economist expectations of 4.91% and declined from 5.02% in the prior quarter. The slowdown was largely driven by weaker consumer spending and softer global export demand.

Currency Markets: Asian Rally as Dollar Softens

A broad-based rally in Asia-Pacific currencies gained traction as the U.S. dollar weakened, offering relief to economies with significant external debt or import dependency.

Top currency movements:

• Taiwanese dollar: +2.95% (29.80 – strongest in nearly 3 years)
• Australian dollar: +0.39% (0.6467)
• Singapore dollar: +0.43% (1.2918)
• Japanese yen: +0.43% (144.39)
• Indian rupee: +0.27% (84.2720)
• Offshore Chinese yuan: +0.12% (7.2031)

These gains reflect both central bank interventions and increasing investor confidence in local currencies.

Oil Prices Retreat: OPEC+ Output Rises

Oil prices declined after OPEC+ confirmed a second month of increased output, stoking fears of oversupply:

• Brent crude: -2.64% to $59.67/barrel
• WTI: -3.04% to $56.52/barrel

Falling oil prices may ease inflation pressures in energy-importing nations but could hurt oil-exporting countries like Malaysia and Indonesia.

Wall Street Futures: Dip After Strong Rally

U.S. stock futures edged lower early Monday, suggesting a cautious start following Friday’s robust rally:

• S&P 500: Closed at 5,686.67 (+1.47%)
• Dow Jones: +564.47 points (+1.39%) to 41,317.43
• Nasdaq Composite: +1.51% to 17,977.73

The previous rally was supported by optimism in tech earnings and resilient consumer spending. However, concerns remain around U.S.-China trade tensions and Federal Reserve policy direction.

Regional Market Closures: Thinner Liquidity in Asia

Several key Asian markets were closed for public holidays, leading to reduced trading volume and heightened volatility:

• Japan
• South Korea
• Mainland China
• Hong Kong

With these markets offline, price action was more sensitive to headlines and currency shifts.

Cautious Optimism in a Complex Environment

The Asia-Pacific region remains caught between political continuity, economic resilience, and global uncertainty. While India shines with domestic optimism, Taiwan and Indonesia highlight vulnerabilities. Currency strength is providing some relief, while falling oil prices introduce a mixed outlook. Investors are advised to remain vigilant as earnings season continues and central banks weigh inflation control against growth support.