^{UBTech humanoid robot is on display during the 27th China Beijing International High-tech Expo at China National Convention Center on May 8, 2025 in Beijing, China.}

^{Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images}

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Humanoid Robots Step Into the Spotlight

A new wave of AI-powered humanoid robots is making its way from development labs into factories, service sectors, and even global tech events, igniting speculation that the industry may be nearing its own “ChatGPT moment.” Industry leaders believe 2024 could mark the first year of mass production, with companies racing to commercialize years of quiet research and development.

“There is a consensus in our industry that the ChatGPT moment for humanoid robots has arrived,” said Xiong Youjun, general manager at the Beijing Innovation Center for Humanoid Robotics and chief technology officer at UBTech Robotics, during a panel in Singapore. He pointed to major strides this year in both mechanical design and AI-powered decision-making, often referred to as the robots’ “brains.”

The Promise and Potential Scale

Humanoid robots are designed to mimic human movement and appearance, and their potential use cases span industrial automation, logistics, healthcare, eldercare, retail, and hospitality.

• Tesla’s Optimus aims to deliver 5,000 units in 2025, with Elon Musk predicting the technology could eventually outpace Tesla’s EV business in value.
• Chinese companies like Unitree, Galbot, Agibot, and UBTech are rapidly scaling, with Galbot already deploying nearly 1,000 robots in commercial and factory settings.
• A Merrill Lynch report estimates global shipments will grow from 2,500 in 2024 to 18,000 units by 2025, and could reach a staggering 3 billion active humanoid robots by 2060 if current trends continue.

The sector is attracting heavy government backing and investor interest in China, where humanoids are becoming a showcase of national AI ambitions.

Breakthroughs on Display

Recent technology conferences and competitions have highlighted the rapid maturation of humanoid robotics:

• At China’s World Humanoid Robotics Game, Galbot won gold in the Robot Skills event after topping a pharmaceutical sorting challenge.
• Humanoid robots have been showcased performing motion-control feats at marathons, boxing matches, and factory floors, signaling growing real-world capabilities.
• Advances in generative AI integration now allow humanoids to learn tasks dynamically rather than rely solely on preset commands, said Guo Yandong, founder and CEO of AI² Robotics, suggesting they could soon take on more complex and adaptable roles.

The Roadblocks Ahead

Despite the buzz, industry experts caution that humanoid robots will not see instant mass adoption like generative AI did in 2022.

“Humanoids won’t arrive all at once in a ChatGPT moment, but gradually take over roles as their capabilities improve,” said Reyk Knuhtsen, analyst at SemiAnalysis, noting they will first appear in low-risk, failure-tolerant tasks.

Key challenges slowing adoption include:

• High production costs and long manufacturing timelines
• Regulatory and ethical concerns surrounding safety, liability, and labor disruption
• Limited public trust and uncertainty over how humanoids will interact with humans in daily environments

Even UBTech’s Xiong admits the industry must navigate legal frameworks and ethical guardrails before humanoids can become mainstream.

A Transformative Future—If the Tech Delivers

Still, most analysts agree the market opportunity is enormous. As AI autonomy improves, robots could take on jobs ranging from warehouse logistics to healthcare assistance, reshaping global labor markets.

“If the technology works, it has the chance to transform many labor processes around the world,” said Knuhtsen. While a full-scale “ChatGPT moment” may not be imminent, the momentum building in 2024 could set the stage for the widespread adoption of humanoid robots within the next decade.