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Rising Geopolitical Stakes in a Thawing Frontier

The Arctic is rapidly emerging as one of the most strategically important regions on the planet. As global temperatures rise and ice coverage retreats, countries are moving quickly to secure access to metals and minerals considered essential for defense, clean energy and advanced technologies. What was once seen as an inaccessible frozen frontier is now viewed as a vast, underdeveloped storehouse of critical resources.

The United States, Canada and Russia are among the most active Arctic players, all aiming to reinforce their influence. Their motivations vary, but one goal is consistent, which is to reduce dependence on foreign mineral suppliers and ensure long term resource security.

Marc Lanteigne, associate professor at the Arctic University of Norway, said the Arctic holds an extraordinary mix of industrial metals and rare minerals. Greenland in particular contains significant deposits of rare earth elements, uranium, base metals, precious stones and gemstones. For years these resources were considered too remote to develop, but warmer temperatures and improved shipping access are changing that calculation.

Strategic Competition Between Global Powers

Multiple governments now see the Arctic as a critical piece of their economic and national security strategies.

United States

Former President Donald Trump repeatedly emphasized the strategic value of Greenland, calling control of the island an economic and security “necessity.” The U.S. has since continued to expand research, diplomatic engagement and mineral exploration efforts in the region.

Canada

Canada is increasing investments in its northern territories as it seeks to unlock long-term mineral potential. These efforts have accelerated in recent years, particularly as the country navigates fluctuating political and economic ties with the United States.

Russia

Russia, with the world’s longest Arctic coastline, has been building up infrastructure for years. President Vladimir Putin recently celebrated the launch of a new nuclear-powered icebreaker designed to expand navigation through Arctic waters. Russia has also invested heavily in Arctic oil, gas and mineral development, making the region central to its long term industrial strategy.

Greenland’s Transformation and Its New Mining Appeal

Climate change has unintentionally transformed Greenland into one of the most commercially promising locations for mineral extraction. A landmark study from the University of Leeds showed that large sections of Greenland’s ice sheet have given way to wetlands, vegetation and exposed rock over the past four decades. For mining companies, this shift has opened access to areas that were previously unreachable.

Rising Investor Interest

Tony Sage, CEO of Critical Metals, says attention toward Greenland has increased sharply, especially since Trump revived discussions about the island’s strategic value. His company operates one of the world’s largest rare earth projects in southern Greenland, and he notes a clear surge in investor engagement.

Amaroq Minerals, another exploration firm, reported one of the most significant rare earth discoveries in Greenland to date. Shortly afterward, the company confirmed commercially viable levels of germanium and gallium at its West Greenland hub. These two metals are crucial for EV batteries, fiber-optic systems, infrared technology and advanced semiconductor manufacturing.

CEO Eldur Olafsson said that while rare earths are important, the discovery of germanium and gallium could be “even more strategically significant.” China controls the overwhelming majority of the world’s supply, and its 2023-2024 export restrictions prompted the U.S. and EU to search aggressively for alternative sources.

How Resource Accessibility is Shifting

Olafsson explained that germanium and gallium are particularly sensitive commodities. Without them, major sectors including defense, automotive manufacturing and telecommunications face severe production challenges. While the EU and U.S. can source some rare earths through companies like Lynas and MP Materials, germanium and gallium remain far harder to replace.

Amaroq now plans a multi-stage mining strategy. In the near term, the company aims to generate revenue from zinc, lead, silver, and smaller quantities of germanium and gallium. Over the longer term, it expects the rare earth segment to become a major revenue driver once infrastructure and processing pipelines are established.

Despite optimism, experts caution against unrealistic expectations. Lanteigne said many assumptions about an imminent “Arctic gold rush” overlook the extremely difficult logistics involved. Heavy equipment, energy supplies, construction materials and labor must all be shipped into remote, icy terrain. Even with ideal political support and climate conditions, he estimates that most large projects require 15 to 20 years before generating substantial returns.

Sweden Emerges as Another Arctic Mineral Power

Beyond Greenland, northern Sweden is becoming a key part of Europe’s mineral diversification efforts. State-owned mining giant LKAB is accelerating development of the Per Geijer deposit, one of the continent’s largest potential rare earth sources. Located near the company’s massive iron ore operations in Kiruna, the deposit could play a crucial role in reducing Europe’s reliance on China for these materials.

Niklas Johansson, senior vice president for public affairs at LKAB, said that despite having existing infrastructure, even their project is far from straightforward. While the material has already been brought close to the surface thanks to the adjacent iron ore mining operations, economic viability remains a challenge. He warns that if the project requires such careful planning for a company with strong infrastructure, it will be even more difficult for other firms across Europe.

The Road Ahead

The Arctic’s mineral potential is vast, but development will take time, investment and international cooperation. As global demand for rare earths, battery metals and semiconductor-critical materials increases, the region is expected to play a growing strategic role.

For now, the combination of climate transformation, geopolitical rivalry and the technology sector’s appetite for specialized minerals is driving unprecedented interest in the Arctic. Whether this moment becomes a true resource boom or a long-term, carefully managed transition remains to be seen, but the world’s focus on the Arctic is stronger than ever.