^{Photo: Chosunbiz}

Apple is poised to surpass Samsung in annual smartphone shipments for the first time in 14 years, marking a major shift in global market leadership. New projections from Counterpoint Research suggest Apple will ship around 243 million iPhones in 2025, outpacing Samsung’s estimated 235 million units. This would give Apple a 19.4 percent share of the global smartphone market compared with Samsung’s 18.7 percent, underscoring the strength of Apple’s product cycle and its growing ecosystem influence.

iPhone 17 Series Drives Apple’s Surge
The strong performance of Apple’s iPhone 17 lineup, launched in September, is the primary force behind this milestone. Counterpoint Research highlighted that the iPhone 17 series had a significantly stronger launch compared with its predecessor, delivering a powerful holiday season boost. In the United States, sales in the first four weeks were 12 percent higher than the iPhone 16 series. In China, one of Apple's most critical markets, early sales jumped 18 percent year over year.

Analysts point to a key structural driver as well: the global smartphone replacement cycle. Many consumers who purchased new devices during the pandemic-era upgrade boom are now returning for replacements, creating a wave of demand that aligns perfectly with Apple’s latest lineup.

Samsung Confronts Intensifying Competition
While Samsung remains a dominant force in the Android ecosystem, it is facing growing pressure in the mid-range and budget segments from fast-rising Chinese brands. These competitors are expanding aggressively with lower-cost models, making it harder for Samsung to maintain unit volumes in critical regions. Counterpoint suggests that regaining the top global position may become increasingly challenging for Samsung if this pressure persists.

Why Analysts See Apple Holding the Lead Through 2029
Counterpoint Research projects that Apple will maintain the number-one position through at least 2029. One major reason is the enormous second-hand iPhone market. More than 358 million used iPhones were sold between 2023 and the second quarter of 2025. These buyers often migrate into the new-device ecosystem within a few years, creating a steady, built-in base of future demand for Apple’s flagship models.

Apple is also benefiting from favorable macro and geopolitical dynamics. A more stable U.S.–China trade environment reduced the risk of aggressive tariffs, helping Apple’s supply chain operate more efficiently. A softer U.S. dollar and stronger consumer sentiment have also supported global sales.

New Products Expected to Strengthen Apple’s Reach
Apple’s roadmap for the coming years further reinforces its long-term position. Counterpoint expects Apple to launch the iPhone 17e, an entry-level model designed to appeal to cost-conscious consumers, as well as a long-awaited foldable iPhone. Additionally, Apple is preparing major upgrades to Siri and a full iPhone redesign in 2027 that could trigger a substantial upgrade cycle across its installed base.

The firm notes that Apple is expanding its lineup across more price tiers to capture growing demand in emerging markets and to solidify its lead in the lower-premium sector, which is projected to grow faster than the overall smartphone market.

With rising loyalty to the iOS ecosystem, increasing cross-device integration, and millions of older models due for replacement, analysts believe Apple’s advantage will continue to build over the decade.